A research chair is arguing Quebec will not meet its climate goals — just as it did not meet its 2020 greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target — and that overall, the energy sector in Quebec is not evolving in line with policy ambitions.

In a paper titled The State of Energy in Quebec 2022 published Thursday, Pierre-Olivier Pineau, chair of energy sector management at HEC Montreal, notes that after the COVID-19 pandemic caused petroleum product sales in Quebec to decline by 11 per cent in 2020 compared to 2019, consumption will return to 2019 levels if the economic recovery and sales of gas-guzzlers continue.

Pineau points out that despite a succession of climate change action plans, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have continued to rise since 2014.

The popularity of large vehicles and freight transportation account for most of the increase. Light trucks, including sport utility vehicles (SUVs), make up 71 per cent of total sales in 2020 compared to 44 per cent a decade earlier in 2010.

Citing monthly Statistics Canada data, the paper states that sales of petroleum products have rebounded in 2021 and are almost back to pre-pandemic levels. For gasoline sales in August, Canadian sales even surpassed 2019.

The paper also notes that electricity consumption in Quebec is highly dependent on weather, with each degree of cooling in winter requiring nearly 400 megawatts (MW) of additional generating capacity. Nothing in residential rates reflects the costs of this additional capacity, however, as rates continue to be subsidized by cross-subsidization from commercial consumers.

However, the authors of the paper observed that in 2021, this cross-subsidy has continued to decline.

On the other hand, the paper recalls that Hydro-Quebec estimated its surplus to be about 40 terawatt hours (TWh) per year in 2019. It points out that these surpluses could disappear by 2029 with new export contracts, growth in demand and electrification, among others.

The paper also notes that the bioenergy and hydrogen sectors are developing very unevenly. While green hydrogen projects are taking shape, biofuel plants are closing or sitting idle.

— This report was first published in French by The Canadian Press on Feb. 10, 2022.