On March 8, Francois Legault said in the presence of his candidate Shirley Dorismond, that the Marie-Victorin by-election would be "a test first for the Parti Quebecois." Ten days later, PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon said that, on the contrary, this election "is first a test for the (CAQ) government."

According to three Quebec political experts interviewed by The Canadian Press, both are right, and their respective parties will not be the only ones whose performance will be scrutinized after Monday's vote. Analysts will also spend a lot of time discussing the results of Eric Duhaime's Conservative Party and Martine Ouellet's new party, Climat Quebec.

PQ: EVERYTHING TO LOSE

Let's start with the Parti Quebecois (PQ), since Marie-Victorin has been a PQ stronghold since its creation in 1980 and the party has a star candidate there: Pierre Nantel.

The Liberals have only managed to take it once, in a 1984 by-election, and that was for only one year. Except that, for the first time in the 2018 general election, PQ candidate Catherine Fournier -- now mayor of Longueuil -- was not re-elected with the comfortable majority that the PQ has become accustomed to in this bastion: Fournier picked up only 705 more votes than her CAQ rival, Martyne Prevost.

"It's a fortress whose foundations are crumbling," said Thierry Giasson, professor of political science at Laval University. "Yes, it is a test for the Parti Quebecois, because if it doesn't win in Marie-Victorin, they will have to justify themselves. It will be very worrying for them if they are not able to win in Marie-Victorin."

"It's certain that, for the Parti Quebecois, the stakes are even higher than for the governing party," said Alain Gagnon, Canada Research Chair in Quebec and Canadian Studies at UQAM.

"When we follow the current polls, we don't have the feeling that the Parti Quebecois has the wind in its sails and if there is good news on that side, at least it would allow it to recruit interesting candidates in other ridings for the fall elections and it would also motivate the troops."

"The Parti Quebecois is betting big and that's why we feel it's putting all its energy into it," notes political scientist Eric Montigny of Laval University, "and its candidate, Pierre Nantel, is well known."

CAQ: EVERYTHING TO GAIN

Since this is a by-election, the first one that can truly gauge the satisfaction of the electorate since the only two others occurred at the beginning of the mandate, the vote also represents a type of plebiscite for the Legault government.

"With the result obtained in 2018 and the fall of many other PQ ridings to the CAQ in Monteregie, they know that the soil is potentially fertile," said Giasson. "They chose Ms. Dorismond on purpose. It is a candidate from the diversity that allows them to reframe perhaps some preconceptions that voters critical of the government may have."

Gagnon agrees.

"The by-election is super important to give dynamism to the government party," he said. "If the Coalition Avenir Quebec is able to take this riding from the Parti Quebecois, it will still be an important vote of confidence."

"And yet," said Montigny, "win or lose, the Coalition Avenir Quebec is still in a win-win scenario. The CAQ has less to lose in the sense that it is a historic stronghold of the Parti Quebecois. Therefore, any good performance could be interpreted as positive even in the event of a defeat. But we sense a willingness on the part of the CAQ to make an effort with a candidate who surprisingly is a former vice-president of the FIQ. So it's clear that the CAQ is trying to win the riding."

FIGHT FOR THIRD PLACE

All three agree that there will be a struggle for victory between the two parties.

The stakes are much lower for Quebec Solidaire (QS) and the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ), who will likely fight for third place.

Fourth in 2012 and 2014, QS managed to overtake the Liberals in third place in the 2016 by-election, but only by four votes. Then, in 2018, the left-wing party consolidated that third place with a lead of nearly 1,900 votes over the Liberals.

QS, however, has yet to threaten the PQ or CAQ. It remains to be seen whether its new role as second opposition has allowed it to gain ground with the electorate, or not. Two women, Shophika Vaithyanathasarma and Emilie Nollet will be running for QS and the Liberals respectively.

ERIC DUHAIME: FROM ZERO TO...?

The Conservative Party (PCQ) did not have a candidate in 2018. Duhaime's party, which will be represented by actress Anne Casabonne, will certainly find something to celebrate, whatever the result, Giasson said.

"It is certain that Mr. Duhaime will say: look, we were not even here and we present a first candidate in the history of the party and we come to get 15 or 8 or 9 per cent," he said.

"Will the PCQ result be seen as a barometer of what's to come? That's a good question," said Giasson. "I'm very curious to see what will happen to the Conservative Party in Marie-Victorin. It will perhaps be indicative of a progression and of the capacity of this organization -- there is a lot of talk about the 57,000 new members of the Conservative Party -- does this translate into strength on the ground? Does that translate into support at the ballot box on voting day? Does it translate into a team that can get out the vote?"

Montigny asks the same questions.

"This is the first test for the Conservative Party of Quebec and I would say -- I went quickly in the riding and I saw the posters -- that it is conducting a real campaign. There are signs, they have put up a candidate who also has some notoriety, for better or for worse. But the challenge for parties like the Conservative Party, an anti-system party, is to get the vote out, and that will be interesting to compare with the polls," he said.

IN THE CAQ'S REARVIEW MIRROR

Eight polls conducted since the beginning of 2022 give Eric Duhaime's party between 9 and 19 per cent of voting intentions, with the exception of a Mainstreet survey that gave him 24 per cent. In other words, anything less than 9 per cent could be seen as a difficulty in carrying voting intentions to the ballot box.

"But it is especially the CAQ that will be watching the Conservative result closely," said Gagnon. "If the Conservative Party were to do well, it would be quite worrisome for the Coalition Avenir Quebec. It would also mean that the CAQ has strayed too far from its political agenda, which was more centre-right, and therefore the Conservative Party is in a position to occupy ground that was once occupied by the Coalition Avenir Quebec."

It's a bit of space that was once occupied by the ADQ (Action Democratique du Quebec) and by the CAQ, which has been vacated, and the right would be more easily mobilized by Duhaime's Conservatives. A strong result would be an indication that there are regions, for example the Beauce or the Quebec City region, that could be thinking of voting Conservative.

MARTINE OUELLET ON THE HUNT FOR GREENS

Finally, there's an intriguing presence created by Martine Ouellet, leader of the new Climat Quebec party.

"She is a daughter of the South Shore and she has roots in the riding," said Montigny. "What will be interesting to see in her case, is if she manages to recover a little the current of the Green Party, which is in disarray in Quebec. There is an opening for her. Will she be able to mobilize, to capture the green current that exists in the population with a more credible option than the Green Party? It will be interesting to follow."

"I do not think that Mrs. Ouellet has the organization, the structure to be able to win a by-election and perhaps even to make a difference in this election," said Giasson. "But she has a rather important local presence. She is known. She was a minister in a government. So, she benefits from a recognition or a professional credibility."

At the same time, he said, "she has had a chequered career and now we are trying to understand, among some voters, where she is going, what she wants to do and, once again, does she have a place in this campaign?"

Gagnon, for his part, doesn't give her much of a chance.

"Mrs. Ouellet, I don't think she'll get much," he said. "On the other hand, it allows an additional point of view to be expressed and then she herself will have to draw conclusions from the little popular support she will probably receive."

Drawing conclusions as in bowing out? Montigny doesn't think so.

"Her track record has not accustomed us to seeing her throw in the towel," he said. "What I assume is that she expects to have an honourable performance. But at the same time, regardless of the outcome, if she is committed to building this greener political path, I don't think she's going to demobilize."

In the end, however, he cautions about the possible conclusions that could be drawn from this election.

"In this case, the by-election is very close to the general election and it's interesting to see what comes out of it, but it's still a by-election and it doesn't mean that the result will have a major influence on the general election," he said.

It would indeed be extremely bold, even imprudent, to make predictions for the Oct. 3 general election based on the result in Marie-Victorin on Monday.

-- This report by The Canadian Press was first published in French on March 9, 2022.