Pablo Rodriguez preparing his Quebec Liberal leadership campaign: sources

Although he is still refusing to publicly confirm his intentions to run for the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) leadership, federal Transport Minister Pablo Rodriguez is busy behind the scenes with the help of close associates with a view to taking the plunge in the race to succeed Dominique Anglade, The Canadian Press has learned.

"They are active and preparing Pablo's campaign," whispered a provincial Liberal source who was not authorized to speak publicly.

This source named four people, including three in Rodriguez's inner circle, who are heavily involved.

The Canadian Press decided not to identify them because one of them feared that his job and those of the others would be in jeopardy if the information were made public.

After checking, a source in the minister's entourage confirmed that "we are preparing."

In particular, the source said that Rodriguez had conversations with Liberal MNAs to test the waters and seek their support should he go ahead.

Several of them told The Canadian Press that they had recently discussed a possible candidacy with him.

Another source confirmed that they are members of the minister's inner circle "who have worked very hard" to convince him to enter the race.

And this group is finding out "how to be ready" on the day the minister announces his candidacy.

"The approach is serious," they added. "These are not balloons in the air."

A fourth source, also in the federal government, confided that steps had been taken to find out about the rules of the race and discussions had taken place with the PLQ, information that it was otherwise possible to cross-check.

On certain elements, "if he decides to run, we know what needs to be done" and how to "guide" Rodriguez during the first few days, the source told the Canadian Press.

"But it's still at a preliminary level. There's no game plan like 'here's your speech (for) day one, here are the interviews (for) day three,'" the source said.

To dive in or not to dive?

Has Rodriguez made up his mind? On Monday, he told journalists who asked him about his intentions that he would come and see them "when I have things to say."

At the press briefing in Halifax on the site of the federal cabinet retreat, he told The Canadian Press that he was "very comfortable" with leaving the suspense hanging and sitting between two chairs with Quebec while he rubbed shoulders with his colleagues, perhaps soon to be ex-colleagues, for three days.

While saying he has no intention of "making the tape," the man who is also Justin Trudeau's political lieutenant for Quebec, has masterfully avoided saying whether he is waiting for the by-election in the Montreal riding of LaSalle--Émard--Verdun -- a stronghold that the Liberals cannot afford to lose -- to pass on his bow.

But a provincial Liberal source was categorical: "He confirmed that he is coming to the leadership of the PLQ, and I'm really not the only one he's telling."

In the same breath, this person pointed out that it sometimes happens that "at the last minute" politicians who are "very sure and motivated" to run "wet their pants" and abandon the idea.

As long as it's not announced behind a podium, there's always a chance that it won't happen.

Around Rodriguez, one source insisted that the decision is not so "final" as to say "100 per cent" he will go for it. Another source said it was "90 per cent certain" that he would run.

"The provincial Liberals are holding their pre-sessional caucus next week in Gatineau, in the Outaouais region. All the MNAs should be there, normally. If Pablo wants to come...," said a source, smiling and eager for him to show up.

However, Rodriguez is not expected to attend. The Quebec federal Liberals will be holding a pre-session caucus on the same day in the Eastern Townships.

Although he is not yet officially in the race, Rodriguez already enjoys the support of Notre-Dame-de-Grâce MNA Désirée McGraw, who has become the first elected member of the Liberal caucus to openly offer her support to a prospective or declared candidate in the race for the PLQ leadership.

Rodriguez's daughter and his communications director, Jacques Martineau, were present at the PLQ Youth Commission convention in Montreal at the beginning of August to test the waters.

The race is taking shape

So far, only two candidates have entered the Liberal leadership race, which does not officially begin until next January: former Montreal mayor Denis Coderre and former president of the Fédération des chambres de commerce du Québec Charles Milliard.

In addition to Rodriguez, Victoriaville Mayor Antoine Tardif, and the PLQ MNA for Marguerite-Bourgeoys, Frédéric Beauchemin, are expected to announce their candidacies.

The Liberals are betting on this race to revive their fortunes.

However, the next Liberal leader will have his work cut out rebuilding his party. According to the latest Léger polls, the PLQ has barely six per cent support among francophones.

Candidates who want to succeed Dominique Anglade will also have to work hard to recruit new members aged between 16 and 25, who have deserted the PLQ in recent years.

Young members account for 33 per cent of votes in a leadership race. The new Liberal leader will be chosen in the summer of 2025.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published in French on Aug. 28, 2024.