An opinion poll with lots of speculation and 'what-if' scenarios shows that with Jean Francois Lisée at the head of the Parti Quebecois, the PQ could possibly defeat the Liberal government.

The CROP poll shows that with Lisée as leader, the PQ would have the support of 31% of the population, while the Liberals would have 33% and the CAQ 25%.

Because the Liberal vote is concentrated in several ridings, this scenario could let the PQ win a minority government.

The poll asked Quebecers how the various parties would fare with each of the four PQ leadership candidates in charge.

With Alexandre Cloutier as leader the PQ would have 27% of the population's support, as would the CAQ, while 36% would continue to support the Liberals.

With Martine Ouellet in charge the PQ support would slip to 25%.

Separation remains an unpopular option

The reason behind the changes is because the PQ leadership candidates have different stances on the raison d'etre of the separatist party.

Lisée has promised that, if the PQ forms the government, he would not hold a referendum in its first four years.

Cloutier said he would only decide six months before the next provincial election whether or not to push for a referendum.

Ouellet is the independence diehard, saying the PQ should press for a separate Quebec.

PQ supporters only

The CROP poll asked PQ supporters, but not necessarily party members, who they would prefer to see as the party's leader.

37% chose Cloutier, while 36% selected Lisée.

Ouellet was third with 22% support while Paul St-Pierre Plamondon had the support of 5%.

Because the PQ leadership vote next month will be a run-off, the CROP poll asked people who their second choice would be.

Ouellet was the second choice for more voters, at 24%, while 22% preferred Lisée.

Cloutier was the second pick of 21% of PQ supporters, while 23% said they had not yet decided.  

 

Liberals continue to dominate

The Liberal party continues to be the most-preferred political option for Quebecrs, with 37% saying they would vote Liberal if an election were held today.

27% say they would choose the PQ, while 26% selected the Coalition Avenir Quebec.

Quebec Solidaire's support has dipped to 9%.

When looking geographically, fully half of the Liberal support is on the island of Montreal, while the CAQ has up to 40% support in Montreal's suburbs and in and around Quebec City.

The PQ's support is greatest in rural areas,  

The CROP poll surveyed 1,000 people from Sept. 15 to 19.

Those selected are a representative sample of Quebec's population based on age, sex, ethnicity, language, education and geography.