The upcoming Scottish independence referendum will cause significant ripples in Quebec, says McGill Professor Daniel Weinstock.
But don’t expect any immediate impact, as separatist parties have little hope of gaining power for four more years.
“The short term impact is going to be quite limited,” Weinstock told CTV Montreal Saturday. “We don’t have a party in power in Quebec city inclined to pull the trigger with a bump in support for sovereignty.”
But if the Scottish separatists win, the ensuing economic conditions will dictate many Quebec mindsets, he thinks.
“Will economic catastrophe descend on the Scots? That would be a cold shower on sovereignist forces. If it goes well, the PQ would have good ammunition to use in the next election.”
It has also been noted that the - unlike in the Quebec experience - the question "Should Scotland be an independent country," is simple and clear and that the UK has agreed to negotiate if the Yes side receives more than 50 percent support.
But what would result remains unclear.
“What would happen is anybody’s guess,” he said. “We’re in unchartered territory. But this would trigger negotiations with a view to creating a new sovereign state.”
Meanwhile PQ MNA Jean-Francois Lisee, a key strategist for the Yes side in the 1995 Quebec referendum, says he's been impressed with the way London has handled the campaign in Scotland.
He says he believes referendum spending laws have been respected, and he`s also pleased that London agreed to a 50-per-cent-plus-one vote result.
Some members of the Parti Quebecois and Bloc Quebecois plan to be in Scotland for Thursday`s vote to root for the Yes side.
John Parisella is another who`ll be watching the vote with great interest.
Parisella was a federal strategist during the 1995 Quebec referendum, and says officials from London consulted with him in the spring.
He says he told them there are two key messages to deliver to the public -- the practical reasons to stay united, and the emotional ones.
Parisella also dismisses allegations that Canada's No side claimed its narrow victory in the 1995 referendum by resorting to dirty tricks -- he insists they won it fair and square.
-With a file from The Canadian Press
