Terrebonne byelection heading for a two-way fight between the PQ and the CAQ
The four elected Parti Quebecois (PQ) members did not hesitate: a few hours after the resignation of CAQ super-minister Pierre Fitzgibbon, they boarded what looked like a campaign bus on Thursday and headed for the now vacant riding of Terrebonne to hold a rally.
The signal is clear: PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon wants to win back this former PQ stronghold.
However, the battle is still far from won, as the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) is not going to let the riding on Montreal's North Shore slip through its fingers.
Poll aggregator Qc125 creator Philippe J. Fournier said that if the PQ doesn't win Terrebonne, it can't win the general election.
"There's no scenario where the PQ wins the most seats -- even a minority -- and Terrebonne isn't one of them," he said in an interview with The Canadian Press.
This is because, unlike Jean-Talon, which was never PQ before Pascal Paradis' surprise victory last October, Terrebonne was a PQ stronghold for several decades.
A former PQ stronghold
Between 1976 and 2018, the PQ lost Terrebonne just once to Mario Dumont's Action Démocratique du Québec in 2007.
The ADQ's reign was short-lived, however, as the PQ won back the riding in 2008.
In 2018, the CAQ won its first majority mandate, and Pierre Fitzgibbon won the riding from outgoing PQ MNA Mathieu Traversy. The man who would become the Legault government's super-minister of the Economy, Innovation and Energy retained the riding in 2022 with 49 per cent of the vote.
The PQ took just 19 per cent.
The pressure on the CAQ is, therefore, also very great in the coming constituency.
"If the CAQ starts losing ridings it won by 30 per cent, it doesn't look good," said Fournier.
The importance of the 450
According to the Qc125 creator, the suburbs around Montreal will be crucial in the next provincial election: "If you don't win the 450, you won't be close to power. (...) Is the PQ really back in the Montreal suburbs? It's going to be a good test," he said.
For the moment, his poll aggregator puts Terrebonne in the category of likely gains for the PQ, but Fournier said "the margin of error is large when you don't have local polls."
The latest polls put the PQ in the lead in terms of voting intentions province-wide. The CAQ is in second place. The two political parties are the ones that attract the most French-speaking voters, and Terrebonne has a very high percentage (93 per cent) of people whose "language spoken most often at home" is French, according to Elections Québec.
The battle between the PQ and the CAQ in Terrebonne will, therefore, be a tough one, especially as the two political parties are communicating vessels in terms of voters.
The other political parties (the Quebec Liberal Party, Québec Solidaire and Éric Duhaime's Conservative Party) are not really competitive at the moment, according to Qc125.
The government has six months to call a byelection following the departure of an MNA. The estimated cost of such an election is $725,000. No party has yet nominated a candidate.
The electoral division of Terrebonne was created in 1929 and is located in the Lanaudière region.
"The toponym refers to the name of the seigneury of Terrebonne or Terbonne, granted to André Daulier Deslandes (...) in 1673. The name of his seigneury is said to have been given because of the fertility of the land," the Elections Québec website says.
Terrebonne by the numbers
- Population: 80,607
- Number of registered electors: 60,184
- Surface area: 86.61 km2
- Average income for households of two people or less: $127,800
- Source: Élections Québec
This report by The Canadian Press was first published in French on Sept. 7, 2024.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Changes coming to Canadian mortgage rules
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland on Monday announced changes to some mortgage rules as part of an effort to make housing more affordable, a critical political issue that has hurt Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberal government.
Man accused of trying to kill Trump wrote a book urging Iran to assassinate the ex-president
Ryan Routh portrayed himself online as a man who built housing for homeless people in Hawaii, tried to recruit fighters for Ukraine to defend itself against Russia, and described his support and then disdain for Donald Trump — even urging Iran to kill him.
Fall back: When does the time change?
The signs of the upcoming autumn season are here as Canadians are starting to notice the skies getting darker earlier, and brightening later.
The last text from the doomed Titan submersible was 'all good here,' hearing reveals
The last words heard from the crew of an experimental submersible headed for the wreck of the Titanic were 'all good,' according to a visual re-creation of the journey of the Titan before it imploded, killing all five on board.
Young family from northern Ontario wins $70 million Lotto Max jackpot
It's been a whirlwind of joyful events for a northern Ontario couple who just welcomed a baby into their family and won the $70 million Lotto Max jackpot last month.
Gould calls Poilievre a 'fraudster' over his carbon price warning
Liberal House leader Karina Gould lambasted Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre as a 'fraudster' this morning after he said the federal carbon price is going to cause a 'nuclear winter.'
Former prominent BBC news anchor gets suspended sentence for indecent images of children on phone
Former BBC news anchor Huw Edwards, once one of the most prominent media figures in Britain, was given a suspended prison sentence Monday for indecent images of children on his phone.
'A nightmare': Nature-goers stranded in B.C. backcountry after bridge washes out
A daytrip to the backcountry turned into a frightening experience for a Vancouver couple this weekend.
Tito Jackson's family says the Jackson 5 member has died at 70
Tito Jackson, one of the brothers who made up the beloved pop group the Jackson 5, has died at age 70.