Study estimates Quebec actually had 58,000 new COVID-19 cases per day last week
How big has the Omicron wave been in Quebec? Much, much bigger than people think, according to a new study that estimated the full, uncounted number of infections in mid-January.
Quebecers have already known for a few weeks that the official case numbers released each day did not reflect the true spread of the virus, since most people have been unable to get a test.
The province maxed out its testing capacity before Christmas and then officially limited tests to only a few groups, including health-care workers and teachers. At the same time, even at-home rapid tests were nearly impossible to get.
In the week the researchers studied, Jan. 13 to 18, official case counts hovered roughly between 4,000 and 6,000 new cases each day.
In reality, there were probably "an average of 35,000 to 40,000 positive tests per day in Quebec during the period," the researchers found, if you include rapid tests.
And the full daily prevalence of new cases is even higher: they ended up estimating it at 58,144 on average, per day, in that week.
They used several methods to include not only the official PCR test results, but at-home rapid tests and people who had COVID-19 symptoms but didn't take any test, and who very likely had the virus.
The rapid tests alone, not taking into account the untested cases, caused the scientists' estimates to balloon five-fold.
"Regardless of the method and estimator used (excluding self-diagnosis), we obtain an incidence that is about five times higher than the official figure," the researchers wrote.
If those numbers seem high, think again, said Dr. Christopher Labos, an epidemiologist at McGill University.
"I think it makes sense. I think it's very reasonable," he said after reviewing the study's estimates. Labos did not contribute to the research.
"I think most people realize that the number of cases being reported is an under-report," he said.
"There's a lot of people that are going undiagnosed because they're either diagnosing themselves with symptoms, or they're getting rapid tests, which are not reflected in the official numbers. So the daily case counts are certainly underestimates."
The government knows this as well, which is why "you've seen [it] sort of rely increasingly on the number of hospitalizations as an indication of how things are going," he explained.
Based on hospitalizations, it seems as if new cases are likely stabilizing, he said -- something authorities said they were starting to see over the last week.
"The inference [is] that because the new number of hospitalizations has been relatively stable recently... things have sort of started to level off here, and that we might be past the worst of the Omicron wave," he said.
However, Labos said it's important for the government to find a way to begin including positive rapid tests, at least, into its own official counts. They're reliable enough for that, he said.
"We have to also try to find some way to incorporate the rapid antigen tests into our testing numbers," he said.
"Those are valid tests. If you have classic COVID symptoms in a positive antigen test, I mean, it's a pretty fair assumption that you actually have COVID -- I think the test would be very reliable in that context."
The researchers behind Friday's study plan to repeat the survey over the next four weeks in a row to follow "the evolution" of the virus's curve, using their own metrics.
This is a developing story that will be updated.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
BREAKING Pearson gold heist suspect arrested after flying into Toronto from India
Another suspect is in custody in connection with the gold heist at Toronto Pearson International Airport last year, police say.
BREAKING Justin and Hailey Bieber are expecting their first child together
Hailey and Justin Bieber are going to be parents. The couple announced the news on Thursday on Instagram, both sharing a video that showcases Hailey Bieber's growing belly.
From outer space? Sask. farmers baffled after discovering strange wreckage in field
A family of fifth generation farmers from Ituna, Sask. are trying to find answers after discovering several strange objects lying on their land.
Poilievre-led government 'would never' use notwithstanding clause on abortion, his office says
A Conservative government led by Pierre Poilievre would not legislate on, nor use the notwithstanding clause, on abortion, his office says, as anti-abortion protesters gather on Parliament Hill.
Ontario family receives massive hospital bill as part of LTC law, refuses to pay
A southwestern Ontario woman has received an $8,400 bill from a hospital in Windsor, Ont., after she refused to put her mother in a nursing home she hated -- and she says she has no intention of paying it.
Here are the ultraprocessed foods you most need to avoid, according to a 30-year study
Studies have shown that ultraprocessed foods can have a detrimental impact on health. But 30 years of research show they don’t all have the same impact.
Miss Teen USA steps down just days after Miss USA's resignation
Miss Teen USA resigned Wednesday, sending further shock waves through the pageant community just days after Miss USA said she would relinquish her crown.
BREAKING 1 dead in rollover crash in Sharbot Lake, Ont.; 5 others injured
Ontario Provincial Police confirm one person has died after a single-vehicle rollover crash in Sharbot Lake, Ont. that seriously injured five others.
Cyclist strikes child crossing the street to catch school bus in Montreal
A video circulating on social media of a young girl being hit by a bike has some calling for better safety and more caution when designing bike lanes in the city. The video shows a four-year-old girl crossing Jeanne-Mance Street in Montreal's Plateau neighbourhood to get on a school bus stopped on the opposite side of the street