Liberals' hold on Laval and Montreal slipping fast, Conservatives on the rise: polls

Polls continue to project the downward spiral of the Quebec Liberals with the party that won four of six elections since the turn of the century now looking to lose around 10 seats in Montreal and Laval.

Poll aggregator site Quebec125.com has Liberal (PLQ) support on the Island of Montreal at 34 per cent with it hemorrhaging support to Eric Duhaime's Conservative Party of Quebec (PCQ), which is polling at 11 per cent.

With that shift, the Liberals could lose seats to the CAQ or Quebec solidaire.

Laval is worse.

The PLQ won five of six seats in Laval in 2018 but polls are showing the Liberals holding just one of those with the CAQ hoovering up the other five. Again, the PCQ is polling strongly with an average of 14 per cent of the vote across the island to the CAQ's 35 per cent and PLQ's 32 per cent.

Below is a breakdown of voting support of the six seats in Laval:

• Chomedey - PLQ (solid), 45 per cent support; CAQ, 27; PCQ 18
• Fabre - CAQ (leaning gain), 37; PLQ, 32; PCQ 14
• Sainte-Rose - CAQ (probable hold), 40; PLQ, 25; PCQ 14
• Laval-des-Rapides - CAQ (leaning gain), 35; PLQ, 27, QS 14, PCQ, 13
• Vimont - CAQ (leaning gain), 37; PLQ, 31; PCQ, 14
• Mille-Iles - CAQ (leaning gain), 37; PLQ, 31; PCQ, 12

Of the 27 ridings in Montreal, Quebec125 has 10 solid PLQ seats, one probably, three leaning red and one (Marquette) a dead heat between the CAQ and Liberal candidates.

All but four of those Montreal seats are west of the Orange QS line running along Saint-Laurent Blvd. from Laurier-Dorion to Saint-Marie-Saint-Jacques.

More troubling for the party that formed provincial governments after four of the six elections since the turn of the century, Anglade may not win her seat in the riding that captured 51.3 per cent of the vote in 2014 and 38.1 per cent of the vote in 2018.

All but four of the seats likely to stay red are in the West Island.

In 2018, the Liberals won 19 seats on the island, QS took six, and the CAQ took two.

Below are the ridings that were Liberal in 2018, but may slip away:

• Marquette - PLQ, 34; CAQ, 34; QS, 11; PCQ, 10
• Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne - CAQ, 29; PLQ, 27; QS, 26
• Marguerite-Bourgeoys - PLQ, 38; CAQ, 32; PCQ, 10; QS, 10
• Verdun - CAQ, 29; QS, 29; PLQ, 22
• Maurice-Richard - CAQ, 29; QS, 29; PLQ, 18
• Anjour-Louis-Riel - CAQ, 36; PLQ, 32; QS, 11; PCQ, 11