Unvaccinated people are more likely to catch COVID-19, but by how much? The answer has changed in recent months.
Unvaccinated people are statistically more likely to catch COVID-19, according to Santé Quebec. But by how much? The answer has changed in recent months, as efficacy wanes and variants emerge, among other factors.
Quebec public health reported Friday that unvaccinated people are 3.8 times more likely to catch COVID-19 than those who are fully vaccinated.
While that’s still a significant jump in risk, it’s lower compared to months ago when the vaccine was still fresh in Quebecers’ arms. For example, on Aug. 25, unvaccinated people were 8.2 times more likely to get sick than those with two shots.
Still, the vaccine offers good protection against serious symptoms – as of Friday, unvaccinated people were 14.8 times more likely to wind up in hospital after getting sick.
But as cases ramp up again in Quebec, and the new Omicron coronavirus variant causes a worldwide stir, should people be worried about the vaccine’s apparently decreased protection?
“If you've gotten your two doses, and you are otherwise healthy, I think you can be relatively confident that you have good protection against COVID-19,” said Dr. Christopher Labos, a Montreal cardiologist with a degree in epidemiology.
"There is waning efficacy to vaccines," he continued. "They are still highly effective, but with time, as people get further and further away from their second dose, vaccine efficacy does decrease a little bit."
There are a number of factors that play into how protective a vaccine is, Labos said. For example, different demographics are at different levels of risk, each group bares different vaccination rates, and the Delta variant has changed how quickly the virus can spread.
Still, for any number of reasons, the coronavirus is spiking in Quebec. Despite the fact that eight in 10 Quebecers aged 5 and up are fully vaccinated, “the pandemic is not over,” Labos said.
WHAT SHOULD QUEBEC DO ABOUT THE NEW VARIANT?
A new variant is spreading quickly through southern Africa, prompting Canadian officials to halt travellers from affected regions from entering Canada.
As of Friday, there were no recorded cases of the new variant in Canada, but that could change.
Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer, Dr. Theresa Tam said on Friday it’s going to be “very difficult” to keep the mutation out of Canada “entirely,” but that screening and isolation measures are already being put in place at the border.
“The border is never 100 per cent, but each layer provides an additional layer of protection,” she said.
So, what should Quebec do to prepare, should the variant arrive?
“I don't think it's anything that should be affecting our course of action right now,” Labos said.
While Quebecers might be tired of hearing it, Labos says the best thing to do remains the same: wear a mask, keep your distance, and get vaccinated, if you haven’t already.
TIME FOR A THIRD SHOT?
If time is a determining factor in vaccine efficacy, could Quebec start rolling out third doses to better protect its residents?
Yes and no, according to Labos.
While the province has already begun offering booster shots to certain groups, such as people with compromised immune systems, Labos says opening that up to the general population might not be the best course of action.
“You do see a boost in your antibody levels after you get a booster. There's very little controversy there,” he said. “The point, though, is that you don't want to give boosters where they're not going to be effective.”
“When you have a finite resource, like vaccine doses are, we also get a lot of benefit from vaccinating people in other countries,” he said.
In South Africa, where the new Omicron variant was discovered, just 24 per cent of residents are fully vaccinated. In Zimbabwe, another area from which travellers are being turned away, it’s just 18 per cent. In Mozambique, just one in 10 residents are fully protected.
“If we could vaccinate everyone, in all of these countries, new variants would stop emerging,” said Labos.
At the moment, Canada does donate hundreds of thousands of doses to countries where vaccination rates are lower.
A breakdown of where those vaccines are going can be found here.
“When you look at the situation globally, you clearly derive more benefit when you give somebody their first dose compared to when you give somebody their third dose,” Labos continued.
“We have to stop thinking of this as a Canadian problem or a Quebec problem and really look at this as a global problem.”
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
NEW From yearning for a change to cost of living, why some Canadians have left or may leave the country
For some immigrants, their dreams of permanently settling in Canada have taken an unexpected twist.
Here are the ultraprocessed foods you most need to avoid, according to a 30-year study
Studies have shown that ultraprocessed foods can have a detrimental impact on health. But 30 years of research show they don’t all have the same impact.
NEW Capital gains tax change 'shortsighted' and 'sows division' business groups tell Freeland
Forging ahead with increasing Canada's capital gains inclusion rate 'sows division,' and is a 'shortsighted' way to improve the deficit, business groups are warning Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland.
Ontario man frustrated after $3,500 paving job leaves driveway in shambles
An Ontario man considering having his driveway paved received a quote from a company for $7,000, but then, another paver in the neighbourhood knocked on his door and offered half that rate.
Defence attacks Stormy Daniels' credibility as she returns to the stand in Trump's hush money trial
Stormy Daniels will return to the witness stand Thursday in Donald Trump's hush money trial as the defence tries to undermine the credibility of the porn actor's salacious testimony about their alleged sexual encounter and the money she was paid to keep quiet.
Police handcuff man trying to enter Drake's Toronto mansion
Toronto police say a man was taken into custody outside Drake's Bridle Path mansion Wednesday afternoon after he tried to gain access to the residence.
What is whooping cough and should Canadians be concerned as Europe declares outbreak?
There is currently a whooping cough epidemic in Europe, with 10 times as many cases compared to the previous two years. While an outbreak has not been declared nationwide in Canada, whooping cough is regularly detected in the country.
Florida deputies who fatally shot U.S. airman burst into wrong apartment, attorney says
Deputies responding to a disturbance call at a Florida apartment complex burst into the wrong unit and fatally shot a Black U.S. Air Force airman who was home alone when they saw he was armed with a gun, an attorney for the man's family said Wednesday.
Air Canada ranks near bottom on customer satisfaction: survey
Air Canada ranks below most other major North American airlines on customer satisfaction, with airfares a particular sore point, according to a new survey.