Should Quebecers be wary of COVID-19 this back-to-school season?

Students in an elementary class get back to work as Quebec students get back to school in Montreal on Tuesday, January 18, 2022. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Paul Chiasson

Ever since COVID-19 plunged Quebec (and the rest of the world) into a lockdown, the back-to-school season has been synonymous with uncertainty. According to one expert, despite the rise in cases this summer, there's no need to worry too much.

Nevertheless, we must continue to adopt the right behaviours, mainly by keeping a sick child at home, said Benoit Barbeau, professor in the Department of Biological Sciences at UQAM and an expert in virology.

"It's inevitable that there will be cases of COVID-19 infection in classrooms since children are right next to each other," explained Barbeau. "Whether it's the COVID-19 virus or the flu virus, ideally, the parent should keep the sick child at home, and prevent him or her from going to school, because these are not the best conditions for learning anyway."

Among other important measures, Barbeau mentioned classroom ventilation.

"As much as possible, we want to keep a certain air flow to ensure that the air circulates. We hope schools have good ventilation units," he said.

The number of COVID-19-positive cases has climbed relatively steadily this summer and continues to rise. Quebec government data for the week of Aug. 11 to 17 show nearly 2,500 new cases, including 1,217 hospitalizations.

"We'll certainly be keeping a close eye on this and other viruses as the new school year gets underway, but this one in particular, compared to what we've experienced in recent years. We want to make sure we have a good understanding of the situation, of the current picture, even before the start of the new school year," said Barbeau.

"It's up to the provincial and federal governments to communicate good practices to the public and ensure that, despite this increase, we can maintain some control over the transmission of this virus," he added.

Barbeau pointed out that the KP.1, KP.2 and KP.3 sub-variants are currently highly prevalent and more transmissible, causing these infection increases.

These sub-variants, like the older BA.1, BA.2, BA.4 and BA.5, are derived from the Omicron variant.

The good news, said Barbeau, is that the symptoms are not as severe in the Omicron variant as in the preceding Delta variant.

Current situation no cause for concern

Although the sub-variants from Omicron are associated with less severe symptoms than Delta, there's still a chance they could mutate into a more aggressive virus.

"We could certainly end up with a slightly more dangerous variant, associated with more severe symptoms," warned Barbeau.

However, he believes the sub-variants circulating in Quebec are "not too serious in terms of risk of hospitalization."

He also noted that children generally have minor symptoms of COVID-19. Cases of hospitalization in children are few, and deaths are pretty rare.

The virology expert doesn't expect COVID-19 to have as much impact on the education system in the near future as in previous school years.

"I think closing a classroom is really a last resort if the situation gets out of control and it's the only way to reduce transmission," he said.

Barbeau believes the worst is over since the Omicron wave hit Quebec in late 2021 and early 2022. That was the peak, with an extraordinary rise in cases of infection.

"Suddenly, it caught up with those who weren't infected. It was a peak, and it would surprise me if we experienced the same thing in the next few years or even decades, but you never know," he said.

Other viruses

There are other respiratory viruses, including other coronaviruses, rhinoviruses and adenoviruses. We should also be wary of the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), which is more dangerous for young children and older people, said Barbeau.

However, COVID-19 has a peculiarity: the virus circulates all year, though it is more active in fall and winter. That means it adapts according to the population that is infected.

"Through the multitude of variants that are produced, there is always one that finds the winning combination to be able to be more prevalent. That's what we've been seeing since the end of May, when hospitalizations increased," explained Barbeau.

Influenza, which hits in the fall and lasts until the end of winter, can also cause many hospitalizations.

"You never know how intense the influenza virus will be, and some strains are more aggressive than others, depending on the year. In recent years, we've had vaccines that have been very effective," said Barbeau.

Each year, the influenza vaccine is produced according to forecasts by the World Health Organization, which tries to predict which strains of influenza will be the most dominant in the coming season.

For vaccination against COVID-19, the National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI) recommends that only vaccines containing the most recently selected strain should be used in the fall of 2024.

- This report by The Canadian Press was first published in French on Aug. 21, 2024.

- The Canadian Press health content is funded through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. The Canadian Press is solely responsible for editorial choices.