More than twice as many Quebecers would vote for the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) as for the Liberals (PLQ) or Québec Solidaire (QS) if the provincial election were held today, a new Léger survey has found.
Two months before Quebecers head to the polls, 44 per cent of respondents said they would support the CAQ, which currently dominates the race.
The Liberals and the QS came in distant second and third, receiving just 18 and 15 per cent of the vote, respectively. They are followed by the Conservatives (PCQ) with 13 per cent and the Parti Québécois (PQ), which came last with 10 per cent of the vote.
But the support towards the CAQ is far from even among all demographics.
While men and women have very similar views of each party, deviating by two per cent at most, language seems to be a much more dividing factor ahead of the election.
Half of all francophones would vote for the CAQ, but among non-francophones, the levels of support drop to a mere 17 per cent.
As for the Liberals, the numbers are nearly reversed: just one in 10 francophones supports the PLQ, while almost half (46 per cent) of non-francophones would cast their ballot for the party.
"The Liberals in Quebec are in a kind of 'damage-control mode,' especially among anglophones and allophones," said Dr. Daniel Béland, director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada.
He said the recent "disenchantment" that English speakers felt towards the Liberals over their handling of Bill 96 has contributed to the party's decline.
"They [also] can't really hope to get back to power without dramatically improving their numbers among francophones," Béland added, referring to the PLQ victory in the 2014 provincial election.
Quebecers seem to stand firm on their views even before the election campaign begins: as many as 62 per cent of the electorate said their choice was final.
When asked about who would make the best premier, the incumbent François Legault was picked by 44 per cent of Quebecers. However, only 15 per cent of non-francophones thought the same.
The CAQ leader is currently miles ahead of his competitors, with Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois (QS) and Dominique Anglade (PLQ) receiving just 11 and nine per cent of the vote in the "best premier" category, respectively.
The majority of respondents (59 per cent) also said they were "satisfied" with the current Quebec government led by Legault.
Despite the CAQ's comfortable lead, Béland said this year's electoral campaign will still influence the final outcome. He warned that any potential "leaks" about government spending, as well as political debates, could affect any party's ratings.
Voter turnout will also remain key this fall, he said, as only two-thirds of eligible voters went to the polls in the 2018 Quebec election.
"If there's no sense that there is a real competition at the top for who will form government, then people might not be as motivated to go out and vote," Béland explained.
The upcoming Quebec provincial election will take place on Oct. 3, 2022.
