The Quebec Insitute of Public Health (INSPQ) is warning the population that the next weeks will be crucial in containing the spread of COVID-19 variants in the province, as they will soon dominate new cases.
McGill University epidemiologist Mathieu Maheu-Giroux released a model of the projected dominance of Sars CoV-2 variants by early April.
The modelling shows that the B.1.1.7 (originated in the U.K.) and the B.1.351 (originated in South Africa) variants will soon account for more than half of the new COVID-19 infections in Quebec.
By July 1, the INSPQ model shows variants as making up almost all of the cases.
"These variants spread rapidly because of their greater ability to be transmitted from one person to another," the INSPQ said in a news release.
There are currently 5,157 variant cases being screened and 704 confirmed cases in Quebec.
Montreal accounts for 464 variant cases (460 B.1.1.7, one B.1.351, one P.1, originating in Brazil, and two B.1.525, orginating in Nigeria).
The INSPQ said, as of March 26, cases confirmed by sequencing are no longer removed from cases of variants detected by screening. Thus, the screening number presents the number of total cases, including that are sequenced.
This explains the jump from 3,978 to 5,157 Friday.
Since the start of the pandemic, researchers have been calculating the reproduction rate (Rt) of the virus - the average number of people infected by another person with the virus in a population where some people are immune.
"Current estimates show that the enhanced surveillance variants are growing rapidly compared to other strains of the virus," said Maheu-Giroux. "While the historical strains are controlled by current measures, the variants continue to grow throughout Quebec."
The study showed that a person who tests positive for a COVID-19 variant infects another 1.31 people, while those infected with other strains infect 0.92 people.
The numbers, the INSPQ said, mean the pandemic is growing.
"The increase in cases of variants under enhanced surveillance means that the current level of application of prevention measures is insufficient to contain their transmission and control the epidemic, at least until a very large proportion of the Quebec population is vaccinated," said INSPQ epidemiologist Dr. Gaston De Serres.
The Quebec data is similar to data collected globally, the INSPQ said adding that citizens should strictly adhere to public health guidelines over the next few weeks while the vaccination campaign continues.
