A Conservative Party leadership race that pits MP Pierre Poilievre against former Quebec premier Jean Charest would be "epic," says Quebec MP Alain Rayes, one of the four Conservative lawmakers who called for Charest to stage a comeback in an open letter Tuesday.
Still, it's far from clear that the former premier would win the battle, he says.
It would be "trench warfare: member by member, membership card by membership card" as the party is at a "crossroads," said Rayes, who stepped down within the party as its Quebec political lieutenant in order to campaign for Charest's candidacy.
Rayes said he thinks Charest would be the candidate representing the party's more progressive but economically conservative wing, capable of rallying the "Blue Liberals," a term in political jargon referring to liberals who tend to be fiscally more right-wing but socially progressive.
Conversely, he described Poilievre as a libertarian politician and "a bit more sensationalist."
So far, the race's only participant is Poilievre, who represents the Ottawa-area riding of Carleton.
Poilievre, who already has a lot of support within the caucus, has a "rather aggressive style," said Senator Jean-Guy Dagenais in an interview with The Canadian Press, saying the candidate wants to represent "the more right-wing, radical faction" of the party, which would "take away our chances" of winning the upcoming elections.
"We don't need an aggressive leader, we need a unifying leader," said Dagenais, claiming to be among those who would not be "comfortable working with a leadership style like that of Mr. Poilievre."
QUEBEC POLICE FIGURE SUPPORTS CHAREST
The former president of the Quebec Provincial Police Association said he "didn't hesitate" to support Charest and start dreaming of "the golden years of Mulroney."
He said he believes that Charest is an "experienced leader" who will be able to bring together the different factions of the party and that a duel with Pierre Poilievre would bring "spice" to the race.
Since leaving politics, Charest has returned to practicing law. He has also been the subject, for many years, of an investigation by Quebec's Permanent Anti-Corruption Unit on the financing of the provincial Liberal party.
This investigation is "a wet firecracker" that will lead "nowhere," said the ex-policeman, who added that he had a message for UPAC: it's time to let the investigation go.
"When you have been investigating for eight years, and your file does not succeed, well then in my opinion you must close the file and remove this sword of Damocles hanging above Mr. Charest," he said.
NOT AN EASY ROAD, INSIDERS SAY
Although Charest is a "magisterial debater" and a "political beast," he would drag negative, "unresolved" aspects of his past into the race, said another Conservative source.
Poilievre's lead would not be insurmountable, she judged, but it would require field work and analysis of the current party membership for Charest to pull ahead.
Another source familiar with the dynamics of the party, however, said that Poilievre is so popular at the moment that he is "a long way ahead."
Poilievre is in constant contact with the party's current militant base and he has an edge through his ever-presence on social networks. The video in which he announced his candidacy has been viewed nearly three million times in total on Facebook, YouTube and Twitter.
To win, Charest would have to sign a large number of new membership cards and convince those who want to vote for another candidate to put him down as their second or third choice, said the party insider.
He'd also need time for that effort, meaning a long leadership race. The date of the leadership vote is still not known.
Nor should the former premier count "automatically" on the votes of Quebec MPs, the person said -- especially with Charest maintaining a position of individual liberty on questions of freedom of religion -- but several would probably be willing to make an "ideological compromise" to see a party leader who comes from Quebec.
'CANADA NEEDS YOU'
In an open letter published Tuesday, co-signed by Rayes, Conservative MPs appeal to Charest's "sense of duty" and implore him to enter the leadership race.
"Canada needs you," they wrote, arguing that the man who led Quebec from 2003 to 2012 is "the perfect person' to take the reins and especially to dislodge Justin Trudeau from power.
Charest's office has indicated that it is not granting interviews at this time. But Rayes said he hasn't yet finished thinking over the idea, explaining that he spoke to the former premier and that he continues to "weigh the pros and cons, make sure there is a path to victory, make sure he has support across the country."
Charest, a lawyer by training, now 63, was the "youngest minister in the history of Canada at 28" in the Progressive Conservative government of Brian Mulroney, the signatories noted, tallying his accomplishments.
His career included several portfolios in federal government and ultimately led him to the head of the party in 1993, following the humiliating electoral defeat of Kim Campbell, where he and MP Elsie Wayne were the only elected members of the party.
Charest multiplied the party's seats, increasing them to 20 during the 1997 elections.
Charest then left the federal scene in 1998 and jumped to Quebec, where he was elected leader of the Liberal Party of Quebec (PLQ), then a member of the provincial legislature.
"No other Canadian has a track record as extensive as yours in both the public and private sectors," wrote those behind the open letter.
"You are tailor-made to lead the Canadian people out of the crisis that we are currently going through with COVID-19," write the signatories.
"Your ability to lead our country would be in stark contrast to the current federal Liberal government."
The Conservatives have been without a leader since the caucus showed Erin O'Toole the door earlier this month, following major dissatisfaction with his leadership following the defeat in the federal election last fall.
Manitoba MP Candice Bergen has been named as the party's interim leader until a permanent one is chosen.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published in French on Feb. 22, 2022.
