Backtracking on the third link, a controversial increase in MNA salaries, and a mess at the SAAQ: it's been a difficult session for the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) government.

"This is the first time the CAQ has been shaken by the missteps it has made," said L'Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM) political science lecturer André Lamoureux in an interview with The Canadian Press.

The decision to back out of the third link project provoked strong reactions not only from the general public, but also from CAQ MNAs, particularly those from the Quebec City and Chaudière-Appalaches regions.

Minister Martine Biron said she was "hurt," while her colleague Bernard Drainville broke down in tears before reporters at the National Assembly.

"This promise has taken on very important proportions in the public debate, because the CAQ has painted itself into a corner. It was bound to disappoint a lot of people," said Philippe Dubois, professor of political communication at the ENAP, a school of public administration.

But while he acknowledges that this was a blow to the government, André Lamoureux feels that the situation could have been worse.

"There was dissension, but no crisis within the caucus," he said. "François Legault was able to overcome the wave of dissatisfaction in his own party."

'JUGGLING HOT POTATOES'

The bill to increase MNA salaries by $30,000 also prompted controversy.

Premier François Legault said that MNAs are entitled to want more so they can bequeath their children as much money as possible.

Government whip Éric Lefebvre, meanwhile, said that his job as an MNA was so demanding that he could only see his mother once a year.

"There was no unified, central message. The justifications put forward were very defensive and self-centred," said Karl Bélanger, president of public relations firm Traxxion Stratégies and former advisor to Jack Layton.

Philippe Dubois thinks the government may have decided to make unpopular decisions at a time when the next election was still a long way off.

"I have the impression that they chose to make this the martyr parliamentary session, thinking that there would be time later to change the framing," he explained.

"As long as we're juggling, we'll juggle all the hot potatoes at the same time."

According to André Lamoureux, the salary increase would have gone down better with public opinion if the government had agreed, in return, to make the MNA pension plan less generous.

"If the government had explained this to the public while allowing a certain increase, I think it would have gone over much more easily," he maintained.

Lamoureux also believes that the bungling of the new online portal for Quebec's auto insurance board (SAAQ) "damaged the image of efficiency that the CAQ government had established since the beginning of its mandate."

One issue that seems to have fared better in the public debate is that of immigration thresholds.

The CAQ is weighing a few approaches in this regard. The first scenario proposes raising them from 50,000 to 60,000 per year, whereas, during the last election, Legault had suggested that increasing the thresholds would be "a bit suicidal."

"In that case, it didn't create a huge controversy. We didn't relive a melodrama, and in that respect I think it's mission accomplished," said Philippe Dubois.

A second scenario would maintain the status quo at 50,000 permanent immigrants per year. Both options will be subject to public consultation.

'FULL EXERCISE OF POWER'

Dubois doesn't think the CAQ government is facing the wear and tear of power.

"The CAQ is clearly experiencing the full exercise of power," he said. "Here, there's room to criticize ministers, to question them, which was less possible during the pandemic because people expected us to stand united behind the government."

Despite this, the government remains largely in the lead, according to the latest polls.

"People continue to have confidence in the government on key issues [...] such as secularism, the French language and immigration control," said André Lamoureux.

In these same polls, however, we see the rise of the Parti Québécois (PQ).

"Potential PQ voters are CAQ supporters. If the PQ keeps up its momentum, it could become a fairly significant pebble in the CAQ's boot," said Dubois.

According to Karl Bélanger, the PQ is taking advantage of the fact that the government seems to be having difficulty obtaining substantial gains from Ottawa.

"Since the CAQ doesn't seem to be delivering and expectations are high, the PQ has a field day throwing this back in their face. That's not to say that the PQ could do better, but for now it's not their problem," he said.

Philippe Dubois points out, however, that the CAQ is still well in the saddle.

"When you look at the approval ratings, it's still very acceptable."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published in French on July 8, 2023.