The year ahead could be a fateful one for the Legault government.
The premier refused to hold his traditional end-of-session press conference at the National Assembly in December, meaning he didn't share his vision for the coming year.
But with the risk of a recession, tough choices are emerging, and pressure on François Legault's government could increase.
Will his approval rating hold up like a Teflon that nothing sticks to, or will the wear and tear of power take its toll?
As the premier said in his November inaugural speech:
"Throughout my career, I have always insisted on results [...] We must all work together to get concrete results by getting into solution mode."
The interim leader of the official opposition, Marc Tanguay, then took no time in picking up on the CAQ's election slogan, "Continuons" (Let's continue), adding ironically, "let's keep not getting results."
For the pretext of fighting the COVID-19 pandemic no longer holds now.
Health Minister Christian Dubé, who has advocated on every platform the health network reform, must quickly solve the perpetual crisis in which he is immersed.
Even at its peak, a government cannot enjoy the patience and indulgence of voters forever.
Since the late 1990s, successive governments have promised Quebecers improvements.
The health and social services mission will siphon off almost $56 billion of Quebec's $135 billion budget by 2022-2023, and it's far from certain that the Legault government will reap the additional billions of dollars it is demanding from the federal government to fund this sector.
Emergency rooms are still overflowing and staff are stretched to the limit. The needs are just as great -- one only has to look at the catastrophic situation in hospitals over the past few months to see that.
"It's not perfect yet, but at least we're managing to provide a minimum level of service," Dubé said in a televised interview in early December.
He wants to implement a one-stop shop for the one million Quebecers who still do not have access to a family doctor, a CAQ commitment.
The minister also wants to end, once and for all, the mandatory overtime imposed on nurses.
In addition, Quebec aims to expand the powers of specialized nurse practitioners, pharmacists and paramedics.
But current negotiations in the public sector could be detrimental to Christian Dubé's ambitions, as the gap between the government's proposals and the unions' demands is wide open.
As François Legault's most trusted advisor, Christian Dubé has built up an image as a model manager over the years.
But this image will be put to the test.
After nearly three years at the helm, the moment of truth will come in 2023: will Dubé be able to turn the healthcare system around where so many others have failed? Or will he, like Napoleon, cross the Nile and not return unscathed?
RECESSION AND INFLATION
There are other pitfalls ahead on the economic front, and the CAQ government must maneuver carefully through these straits to avoid failure.
"The economic outlook has deteriorated," Finance Minister Eric Girard admitted in December's economic update.
"We are in a period of great uncertainty," and the odds of a recession this year are 50 per cent, he continued.
Even if inflation has slowed, the loss of household purchasing power and the resulting discontent could damage the government's image.
It will have to negotiate a delicate passage on Jan. 31 with the start of consultations on Bill 2, which would cap electricity rate increases at 3 per cent.
The cap would not protect businesses. In their case, the electricity bill will increase by 6.4 per cent on April 1 and by 4.2 per cent for large companies.
The Canadian Federation of Independent Business is already on the record as participating in the hearings.
Option Consommateurs predicts that businesses will pass on these increases to their customers.
The government has been forced to tinker with this solution. In its haste to abolish the Régie de l'énergie's control over rates, it has consistently argued that an increase based on the consumer price index would be lower than those set by the Régie -- until inflation exploded after the pandemic.
The government also aims to quickly pass its bill capping other rates at a maximum of 3 per cent, whether for daycare services, university tuition fees, vehicle registration fees, private or semi-private rooms in hospitals, charging stations for electric vehicles, etc.
In addition, the government is touting its commitment to reduce taxes by 1 per cent for the first two tax brackets in 2023.
DEBT AND THE GENERATIONS FUND
Minister Eric Girard also suggested he wants to undertake a new project, which has been mentioned sporadically in recent years: the revision of the law on debt reduction and the Generations Fund.
The government has achieved its targets faster than expected, partly due to inflation. The target in the law was a gross debt of 45 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), now expected to reach 40.4 per cent.
"In fact, the treasury was able to take advantage of inflation, earning $14 billion in additional tax revenues in its fiscal framework," said Girard.
But "the spirit of the law" has not yet been achieved, the minister argued, as if to keep pressure on public finances and limit spending and debt growth.
The "spirit" was the wish made in 2006 to target the average net debt ratio of Canadian provinces, not the gross debt -- that is, a net debt/GDP ratio of 31 per cent, while Quebec is still at 38 per cent.
That's still a long way off if Quebec is closing the gap by 0.5 per cent per year, as Girard suggested.
In addition, the Legault government has indicated it's considering reducing its payments to the Generations Fund. This tool, fed by royalties, dividends, mining revenues, Hydro-Québec contributions and interest, is used specifically to reduce debt.
The "dedicated revenues" paid annually to the fund will reach $5.2 billion in 2027, but the minister suggested payments to the fund could be capped at $3 billion -- convenient since the other $2 billion would be available to the government, even if this slows down the debt reduction objective.
Consultations should, therefore, in all likelihood, be undertaken to agree on new debt reduction targets and to discuss the Generations Fund.
In a context where massive reinvestments are required in public services, what is the "responsible management of public finances" that the CAQ government so often claims?
The answer is yet to come.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published in French on Jan. 4, 2023.
