Just off the heels of a poll that shows support for the Parti Quebecois is dwindling, some political analysts are attributing the start of the party’s downfall to the moment Pierre Karl Peladeau entered the race.
In a live chat with CTVNews.ca, Ipsos Reid Quebec President Luc Durand said his polling firm saw a decline in voting intentions for the PQ about three weeks ago, which is around the time Peladeau announced his candidacy.
“The talk was more oriented on a referendum,” Durand said.
It was Durand’s firm that conducted a poll that found 28 per cent of decided voters plan on casting a ballot for the PQ, a four percentage-point decrease from the last Ipsos-Reid poll, conducted in mid-March.
Don Macpherson of the Gazette also said Peladeau’s candidacy was a turning point for the PQ.
He explained that prior to the election call, PQ Leader Pauline Marois had had achieved a balance on the question of the referendum -- saying the party would issue a white paper and conduct a consultation with Quebecers.
That promise, said Macpherson, appeased the more hardline sovereignists in the party, who were reassured that something would be done on the subject, while the less-ardent separatists were comforted because it wasn’t a drastic measure.
“Then when Peladeau came in and placed the emphasis on sovereignty and got sovereignists all excited about the possibility of another referendum, I think that is really where the PQ got into trouble. They lost control of their own campaign and basically played right into the hands of the Liberals,” he said.
Durand said all is not lost for the PQ in the final four days of the campaign, and offered the party some advice.
“Find the one thing people will like to hear and STICK to it. Keeping in mind that the gain can be made among Quebec solidare supporters and the Coalition Avenir Quebec,” he said.
Jean Lapierre warned that the PQ’s apparent tumble in voter intention doesn’t guarantee that the Liberals will win a majority.
“They've got to work harder in Quebec City because the CAQ has gone up and in the 450, they've got to work in those ridings,” he said, pointing out that Liberal Leader Philippe Couillard is focusing his attention on those areas in a string of appearances Thursday.
The poll revealed the PQ’s loss of support has partially benefitted the CAQ.
“But at the same time, the CAQ seems to be a potential option for the Liberals voters. Though this ‘potential’ is not materializing for now,” said Durand.
The Liberals and CAQ must now make sure they don’t lose support to the other party.
Lapierre said he believes that at the moment, 26 ridings are too close to call one way or another.
Right now, he said, the Liberals are just on the line of a majority, but nothing is certain.
“That is why everybody has to campaign until Monday at 8:00 a.m. (Take) nothing for granted,” he said.
The poll shows seven per cent of voters are undecided. During the live chat, Durand was asked what it will take to sway those voters.
“I think the last days, and appearances, are going to be crucial. People still need to be convinced,” Durand said.
