MONTREAL -- Quebec health officials have revealed their projections for the timeline and scale of the COVID-19 pandemic in the province.

The projection reveals two scenarios: one optimistic, one pessimistic -- based on how Quebecers adhere to public-health orders.

In the optimistic scenario, by April 30, Quebec will see a peak of:

  • 29,212 COVID-19 cases
  • 1,404 hospitalizations
  • 468 patients in intensive care
  • 1,263 deaths

In the pessimistic scenario, by April 30, Quebec will see a peak of:

  • 59,845 COVID-19 cases
  • 3,028 hospitalizations
  • 1,009 patients in intensive care
  • 8,860 deaths

In both scenarios, the peak of the COVID-19 crisis would come between April 15 and 20.

As of April 7, there are 9,340 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Quebec and 150 deaths.

There are 583 Quebecers being treated for COVID-19 in hospitals, 164 of which are in intensive care.

The projection is based on current Quebec data, as well as models from two countries -- Italy and Portugal -- based on how quickly they intervened and if residents complied with the guidelines.

Assistant to the health minister, Yvan Gendron, and Quebec’s strategic medical advisor for public health Richard Massé revealed the scenarios on the COVID-19 curve in Quebec at an afternoon press conference.

It’s very difficult to say if the real numbers will hit closer to the optimistic or pessimistic mark, said Massé who said if we stick to the self-isolation guidelines, we’ll be closer to the optimistic number of cases and deaths.

Massé pointed to a mobility study carried out by Google that showed that Quebecer are the most compliant in staying at home compared to residents in all 10 provinces and 50 states in North America.

Public health officials said they refused to project numbers beyond April 30 because there are too many factors that can change the data, even in the short term, including compliance, medication and possible vaccines.

“Week after week we are going to provide data that will show where we are, said Massé. “The farther we go on the curve, the less secure we are on the figures… so we prefer to stay close and have good projections.”

They also said they would not provide a date for when non-essential businesses should re-open. 


Quebec COVID-19 projections: cases

Quebec COVID-19 projections: Hospitalizations

Intensive Care:
Quebec COVID-19 projections: ICU

Quebec COVID-19 projections: Deaths


On Friday, Ontario revealed its forecast, predicting that with the current physical distancing measures in place, 1,600 people will die from the virus by April 30. Without any measures, 6,000 people could have been dead by the end of the month.

The model forecasts that by April 30 there will be 80,000 cases of COVID-19 in Ontario. It suggests that without the current health measures in place, there would be 300,000 cases by the end of the month.

The modelling predicts the COVID-19 pandemic could last between 18 months and two years with between 3,000 and 15,000 people in the province dying from COVID-19 with health measures that are already in place.

Without any public health measures, the worst-case modelling forecasts up to 100,000 deaths in that province.