CAQ continues to lose ground to PQ in voting intentions; Liberals now in 2nd place: poll

The Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) continues to lose ground to the Parti québécois (PQ) in voting intentions, according to Pallas Data's latest poll, with François Legault's party now in third place, behind the PQ and the Liberal Party (PLQ).

According to Toronto-based Pallas Data, the PQ once again leads in voting intentions among decided voters, at 33 per cent, 10 points ahead of the PLQ, at 23 per cent. The CAQ is third at 20 per cent, while Québec solidaire (QS) has 13 per cent support.

The Conservative Party (PCQ) closed the gap at 11 per cent.

The wind blowing in the PQ's sails shows no sign of abating. In the previous Pallas poll in February, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon's party won 31 per cent of the vote, which means it has gained two percentage points in two months.

Conversely, the CAQ's decline continues. It has lost three points since February and is struggling in the Montreal suburbs, where it made significant gains in the 2022 election.

QS also losing ground 

The surprise of the survey, however, comes from the PLQ, which comes second in voting intentions thanks to an eight-percentage-point jump since February. QS is also losing ground to the PQ, as evidenced by its four-point drop since February.

This Pallas Data poll, conducted on April 20 and 21 with a random sample of 1,256 respondents, was commissioned by Qc125. The margin of error for the entire sample is plus or minus 3 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Qc125 creator Philippe J. Fournier told L'actualité these results show the scale of the challenge facing the CAQ since, in addition to its oft-mentioned setbacks in the Quebec City region, the party is also struggling in Greater Montreal and elsewhere in the province.

In Greater Montreal, the CAQ had 18 per cent of support, outstripping the PLQ (32 per cent) and the PQ (30 per cent). In the Quebec City region, it garnered 16 per cent of support, less than the PQ (38 per cent) and the PCQ (30 per cent).

In the rest of Quebec, the CAQ (24 per cent) came second, behind the PQ (38 per cent). Despite the Liberals' significant jump (up eight percentage points since February), Fournier stresses that "further polling will be necessary before we can determine whether this is an outlier."

It is possible, however, that the PQ's outspoken affirmation of its intention to hold a referendum on Quebec independence by 2030, should it come to power, could strengthen the PLQ's support.

"However, it is important to point out that the PLQ risks plateauing if it fails to grow its support in the French-speaking majority, where it only obtains 10 per cent favourability according to Pallas," Fournier wrote in the newspaper.

QS is also suffering from the rise of the PQ, according to the Qc125 founder. He noted that only 65 per cent of QS voters in 2022 still support the party, while 30 per cent have turned to the PQ.

Léger poll also released

Another poll, conducted by the Léger firm and released Tuesday afternoon, is much less favourable to the PLQ. It puts the Liberals in third place with 15 per cent support, well behind the PQ at 34 per cent and the CAQ at 24 per cent. QS is fourth at 14 per cent and the PCQ fifth at 10 per cent.

This survey was conducted for Le Journal de Montréal, Le Journal de Québec and TVA among 1,026 Quebecers (including 849 decided voters) between April 19 and 21.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published in French on April 23, 2024.