To the Quebec Liberals still reeling from the party's historic defeat on Oct. 3, Dominique Anglade's political future seems more uncertain than ever.
If the Liberals stand united behind their leader in public, it's a different story behind the cameras.
Over the past few days, The Canadian Press has conducted interviews with a dozen Liberals, often long-time party members, who have worked closely with Anglade. The list includes several former MNAs and defeated candidates.
All sources agreed to share their thoughts, on the condition that their identity remains confidential.
A HISTORICALLY LOW SCORE
It's not a time of optimism in the Liberal ranks. Of all the people interviewed, no one predicts Anglade will remain party leader when the next election is held in 2026, and no one pledged to support her in the confidence vote at the convention a year from now.
On the contrary, some sources said they're staying in the party precisely so they can vote her out and hasten her departure.
If Anglade were to win the confidence vote, it would be a "tragedy for the party," according to one former MNA who sat alongside the party leader just months ago.
Many sources claimed the scramble to find a successor had begun before the election campaign even started.
"She has almost killed the Liberal party," said one former MNA, a member of the Anglade caucus until recently.
The source held her personally responsible for the party's setbacks.
On Oct. 3, the QLP received its worst score in history, with 21 MNAs elected and 14 per cent of the popular vote (6 per cent in Quebec City, 3 per cent in Saguenay).
The Liberals dropped to fourth place among the five major parties in terms of popular support, behind the Parti québécois and Québec solidaire.
Compared to 2018, the QLP has 10 fewer MNAs, and since 2014, the party has lost more than 1.1 million votes. This decline in support has been most dramatic among the French-speaking electorate.
Faced with these "catastrophic" figures, the panic among the Liberals is palpable.
"The QLP is not safe from disappearing," fears one defeated candidate who bit the dust in a former QLP stronghold.
"How far will we sink?" wonders another.
Hence the importance for the Liberals to find the right person to reverse the trend, sources say, and avoid a slow and inexorable agony for the party of Jean Lesage, Robert Bourassa and Jean Charest.
Under the circumstances, Anglade, who has announced her firm intention to remain leader, must above all be "lucid" and draw the necessary conclusions, said a defeated candidate.
"She's not getting through," said a former member of the Anglade caucus, stating she knows long-time Liberal supporters who abandoned the party on Oct. 3 because of its leadership.
"People did not want to see her" during the election campaign while she visited ridings, the former MNA added.
While acknowledging Anglade's positive qualities, many Liberals agree she struggled to connect with her supporter base and voters.
"She just doesn't click," said one former MNA in a terse assessment, convinced that Anglade is "going to have to debark" for the party's own good.
The dozen or so Liberals contacted by The Canadian Press said Anglade's leadership style is a major factor in their disapproval.
They criticize her for several things: her lack of listening skills, her tendency to create a vacuum around her and to surround herself with inexperienced people, her distance from Liberal values, her inability to attract more members and funding sources, and above all, for abandoning the volunteer structure in the regions, which former Premier Jean Charest has called "the backbone" of the party.
Anglade has had two and a half years "to prove herself, and it didn't work," concluded a former elected official who had supported Anglade's candidacy in 2020 and is now calling for her departure.
The source described a tense, "toxic climate" that prevailed in the Liberal caucus, an observation confirmed by several others.
"If the leader of the Official Opposition was unable to unify her 27-member caucus and was unable to rally it around common objectives, how can we be surprised that she did not win over more voters on Oct. 3?" asked a former caucus member.
Anglade's departure is all the more inevitable, according to the former member, because her entire electoral strategy was based on her personality -- the "real Dominique" -- a risky gamble that she lost.
The positions taken by the leader over the past two years, especially concerning nationalism and environmentalism, have made many Liberals dizzy, saying they no longer recognize their party.
At first, "she betrayed the ideals of the party," said one source. Then, "she tried to get her act together" to correct the situation, "but it was too late" and the damage was done.
A party is not "a brand of yogurt," the source concluded.
CONFIDENCE OR DISTRUST?
One defeated candidate, having lived through "une élection de 'marde,'" said she hopes the convention will be held quickly, before the summer, to help the party "move on."
But she's divided on what to do next. While she criticized Anglade, she highlighted the importance of rallying, fearing that the QLP "will become like the PQ," which has changed leaders several times in recent years.
Some say Agnlade should aim for a score of at least 75 per cent to maintain a minimum of legitimacy and possibly stay in office. But what is a vote of confidence worth?
In 1997, Daniel Johnson received 80 per cent support from Liberals at a convention. A few months later, he was shown the door to make way for Jean Charest.
"Since when is the QLP going to keep a person who lost the election?" asked a former elected official.
In 1998, Jean Charest, fresh from Ottawa, lost to Lucien Bouchard's PQ but won the popular vote and took power in 2003.
In any case, the situation is "sure to blow up" during the vote of confidence, predicts a defeated candidate.
Until then, one thing is certain: Anglade will have to "establish her authority over her caucus. Otherwise, she is done for."
The Liberal leader does not seem to understand the full extent of her defeat on Oct. 3, argued one source.
If she were really aware of it, "she would take her leave" right now, she said.
DISORGANIZATION
All sources interviewed denounced the "completely deficient" organization of the Liberal election campaign.
In the past, the QLP was known for its "machine" on the ground, capable of mobilizing its troops throughout Quebec and winning an election.
During this last election, the party scrambled for volunteers. About twenty riding associations did not have a president, and some district associations no longer even bother to meet where they still exist.
"The troops are demotivated, demoralized," said one association president.
In addition, an unprecedented ten candidates were missing when the campaign began.
Those surveyed blame their leader and want to see accountability, especially regarding the party's general manager, Julie Martel, the chief organizer, Jean-François Helms, and the head of communications, Jérémy Ghio, all people chosen by Anglade.
THE FIDDLING HAS BEGUN
Anglade does have one major advantage when it comes to keeping her position: there's no rush to the door to succeed her.
However, several sources claim shuffling started even before the election campaign.
Some "started making calls" to begin the hunt for a potential "saviour," said a former minister.
If Anglade had resigned on election night, the MNA for La Fontaine, Marc Tanguay, was already positioning himself to take over the next day and ensure the interim, several sources said.
For the moment, few names of possible "saviours" are circulating. André Fortin, MNA, was considered in the past but declined for family reasons. MNA Marwah Rizqy, who is due to give birth any day now, had also considered running for office, but declined.
This report was first published in French by The Canadian Press on Oct. 12, 2022.
