QUEBEC CITY -- The Legault government's final budget before the election will be released Tuesday, and it appears to have been designed to attract more votes for the CAQ in the next election.

The government is preparing to send cheques to the general public to offset the sudden and marked rise in inflation.

On the eve of the tabling of his fourth budget, on Monday, Finance Minister Eric Girard took the traditional photo op showing him with a new pair of shoes, this time 'performance' sneakers supposed to illustrate the strong performance of the Quebec economy. But he says he wants to avoid playing Santa Claus, even a few months before the next election.

In a press scrum outside his offices in Quebec City, he confirmed that his budget would include one-time financial assistance measures specifically designed to offset the recent rise in the cost of living. However, contrary to the approach last November when he presented his mini-budget, the measures will be aimed at the general population and not at specific target groups.

Quebecers will have to wait until Tuesday afternoon to see how the money will be doled out, and what the scope of the 'more general measures' announced will be, at a time when taxpayers are increasingly worried about rising inflation and the loss of their purchasing power.

In preparing his document, Girard said he was keen to ensure responsible, non-partisan management of public finances by presenting a prudent fiscal framework.

"We are making decisions in the best interests of Quebec," he commented.

Even if the government's mandate is set to end in a few months, the budget tabled on Tuesday will present a 'long-term' vision, spread over several years, for the financing of the government's main missions, primarily health and education.

Last fall, it was already clear that economic recovery was very strong in Quebec in 2021. This upward trend will be confirmed on Tuesday.

In his November mini-budget, to counter the sudden rise in consumer prices, Girard promised a $275 cheque ($400 for a couple) to people with incomes under $50,000, or 3.3 million taxpayers in total.

In November, it was estimated that the Quebec economy would grow by 6.5 per cent in 2021. That performance will be revised down slightly on Tuesday, but will remain strong.

The previous year, the first year of the pandemic, Quebec's deficit reached a historic high of $15 billion. Since then, it had already been cut in half by last fall, to $6.8 billion.

Girard did not say Monday how much the deficit would be for the current year, according to the Finance Department's latest estimates, but the news should be good, as the structural (multi-year) deficit will be under $3 billion, half of what the department had anticipated a year ago.

"The economy has performed very well in 2021. An exceptional performance. Quebec has done better than Canada, the United States and Ontario," said the minister. Moreover, the unemployment rate (at 4.5 per cent in February) remains very low, so Quebec has returned to full employment. Its problem now is to tackle the labour shortage.

Despite this strong performance, fighting the budget deficit will not be a priority. A return to a balanced budget is not expected before 2027-2028. The Legault government says that it does not want to make waves and that it wants to return to a balanced budget in the "softest possible way."

This cautious approach is explained by the "high degree of uncertainty" around the world, due to the pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, said the minister, who wants to keep some room to manoeuvre, in case of a hard blow or recession.

He estimates the current risk of the country falling into recession at 25  per cent. In normal times, this scenario does not exceed 10 per cent.

- This report by The Canadian Press was first published in French on March 21, 2022