Study estimates Quebec actually had 58,000 new COVID-19 cases per day last week
How big has the Omicron wave been in Quebec? Much, much bigger than people think, according to a new study that estimated the full, uncounted number of infections in mid-January.
Quebecers have already known for a few weeks that the official case numbers released each day did not reflect the true spread of the virus, since most people have been unable to get a test.
The province maxed out its testing capacity before Christmas and then officially limited tests to only a few groups, including health-care workers and teachers. At the same time, even at-home rapid tests were nearly impossible to get.
In the week the researchers studied, Jan. 13 to 18, official case counts hovered roughly between 4,000 and 6,000 new cases each day.
In reality, there were probably "an average of 35,000 to 40,000 positive tests per day in Quebec during the period," the researchers found, if you include rapid tests.
And the full daily prevalence of new cases is even higher: they ended up estimating it at 58,144 on average, per day, in that week.
They used several methods to include not only the official PCR test results, but at-home rapid tests and people who had COVID-19 symptoms but didn't take any test, and who very likely had the virus.
The rapid tests alone, not taking into account the untested cases, caused the scientists' estimates to balloon five-fold.
"Regardless of the method and estimator used (excluding self-diagnosis), we obtain an incidence that is about five times higher than the official figure," the researchers wrote.
If those numbers seem high, think again, said Dr. Christopher Labos, an epidemiologist at McGill University.
"I think it makes sense. I think it's very reasonable," he said after reviewing the study's estimates. Labos did not contribute to the research.
"I think most people realize that the number of cases being reported is an under-report," he said.
"There's a lot of people that are going undiagnosed because they're either diagnosing themselves with symptoms, or they're getting rapid tests, which are not reflected in the official numbers. So the daily case counts are certainly underestimates."
The government knows this as well, which is why "you've seen [it] sort of rely increasingly on the number of hospitalizations as an indication of how things are going," he explained.
Based on hospitalizations, it seems as if new cases are likely stabilizing, he said -- something authorities said they were starting to see over the last week.
"The inference [is] that because the new number of hospitalizations has been relatively stable recently... things have sort of started to level off here, and that we might be past the worst of the Omicron wave," he said.
However, Labos said it's important for the government to find a way to begin including positive rapid tests, at least, into its own official counts. They're reliable enough for that, he said.
"We have to also try to find some way to incorporate the rapid antigen tests into our testing numbers," he said.
"Those are valid tests. If you have classic COVID symptoms in a positive antigen test, I mean, it's a pretty fair assumption that you actually have COVID -- I think the test would be very reliable in that context."
The researchers behind Friday's study plan to repeat the survey over the next four weeks in a row to follow "the evolution" of the virus's curve, using their own metrics.
This is a developing story that will be updated.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
Stamp prices rise for the third time in five years amid financial woes for Canada Post
Canada Post is increasing stamp prices for the third time since 2019, a move the Crown corporation says is a "reality" of its sales-based revenue structure.
Winnipeg man admits to killing four women, claims he's not criminally responsible
Defence lawyers of Jeremy Skibicki have admitted in court the accused killed four Indigenous women, but argues he is not criminally responsible for the deaths by way of mental disorder – this latest development has triggered a judge-alone trial rather than a jury trial.
Trudeau Liberals to unveil new bill Monday aimed at countering foreign interference
Democratic Institutions Minister Dominic LeBlanc will be tabling legislation on Monday aimed at countering foreign interference in Canada. Federal officials have scheduled a technical briefing on the incoming bill for Monday afternoon.
WATCH Avian flu: Risk to humans grows as outbreaks spread, warns expert
H5N1 or avian flu is decimating wildlife around the world and is now spreading among cattle in the United States, sparking concerns about 'pandemic potential' for humans. Now a health expert is urging Canada to scale up surveillance north of the border.
Human remains were found at a former Hitler base, but decay prevents determining the cause of death
Polish prosecutors have discontinued an investigation into human skeletons found at a site where German dictator Adolf Hitler and other Nazi leaders spent time during the Second World War because the advanced state of decay made it impossible to determine the cause of death, a spokesman said Monday.
Italy's white-collar mafia is making a business killing
Italy's mafia rarely dirties its hands with blood these days. Extortion rackets have gone out of fashion and murders are largely frowned upon by the godfathers.
Ontario MPP asked again to leave Ontario legislature over keffiyeh, Speaker loosens ban
An Ontario MPP was asked again to leave the Ontario legislature on Monday for wearing a keffiyeh, a garment that was banned by the Speaker last month due to its political symbolism.
The story of how a B.C. man found his birth mother
After his adopted parents died, Dave Rogers set out to learn more about his birth mother. DNA results and a little help from friendly strangers would put him on a path to a small town in England.
Trump fined US$1,000 for gag order violation in hush money case as judge warns of possible jail time
The judge presiding over Donald Trump's hush money trial fined him US$1,000 on Monday for violating his gag order once again and sternly warned the former president that additional violations could result in jail time.