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Slight gains for Conservatives and Liberals, but polls still say a CAQ landslide is coming on Oct. 3

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Polls continue to say Francois Legault's CAQ party will take power on Oct. 3 with a massive majority. The question remains: How big will they win by and how many parties will have seats in the National Assembly?

The Quebec projections map, though still showing a landslide for the CAQ, is showing signs of shifting sands, if only slightly.

A week ago, the poll analysis site Quebec125.com had the Conservative Party of Quebec (PCQ) with a chance of winning the two Beauce seats and leader Eric Duhaime's Chauveau riding, but Christian Gauthier's campaign in Lotbinière-Frontenac has brought the Conservative's (37 per cent vote projection) within spitting distance of CAQ incumbent Isabelle Lecours (40 per cent vote projection), who won with 53.7 per cent of the vote in 2018.

The polls have the PCQ up two per cent in the popular vote to 15 from the beginning of the campaign.

The CAQ still is leading by a vast margin but is down from projected to win between 82 and 106 seats to between 78 and 105. The party is projected to capture 40 per cent of the vote (down from 42), and is still not likely to lose a single seat they currently hold.

The Liberals (PLQ) want to change that and leader Dominique Anglade said Monday that she is targeting three seats the CAQ took from the PLQ in 2018: Sainte-Rose, Soulanges and Huntingdon. Polls have the CAQ probable in Huntington (40 per cent of the vote for CAQ to 25 for PLQ), CAQ solid in Soulanges (45 to 26), and CAQ probable in Sainte-Rose (40 to 25).

As of Sunday, the Liberals are up in seat projections from 10 to 24 seats a week ago to 12 to 27, with 18 per cent of the popular vote (up one percentage point).

Quebec Solidaire remains almost identical to a week ago at between five and 13 seats (last week: five and 14) with 15 per cent of the vote (the same as a week ago).

Numbers on Oct. 4 mirror those of Sept. 24 for the Parti Quebecois with nine per cent of the popular vote and between one and six seats.   

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