Two projection models used by Quebec’s public health institute continue to predict a sharp increase in hospitalizations, both in regular and critical care related to COVID-19 in the next two weeks.
Projections released Thursday morning by the Institut national d'excellence en santé et en services sociaux (INESSS) suggest that within two weeks, occupancy for COVID-19 patients could exceed 3,000 beds. That’s well above the thresholds observed in previous waves.
For critical care beds, projections also predict that within two weeks, more than 400 beds could be occupied, above the thresholds observed in previous waves.
There are some issues that have an effect on the projections models, however.
INESSS notes that the limited screening capacity in the past week now significantly underestimates the number of actual cases. For this reason, it is no longer able to reliably produce its prediction report.
On the other hand, the Institute observes that the effects of the health measures announced on Dec. 20 and Dec. 30 are not yet visible in the data and that their effects can’t be taken into account by the models.
The INESSS models also do not incorporate the progression of the third dose of vaccine and its effect on hospitalizations.
The Institute also notes that many people are hospitalized for a reason other than COVID-19, but then test positive on admission or during their stay. This proportion could represent nearly half of regular beds and more than 15 per cent of intensive care beds, according to the INESSS.
- This report by The Canadian Press was first published in French on Jan. 6, 2022
