The hybrid work model by many Montreal businesses could reduce traffic by 19 to 25 per cent and consumer spending by up to 14 per cent in the downtown core, at least in the short term, according to an analysis by PwC Canada.
"It's huge," Montreal Chamber of Commerce (CCMM) president and CEO Michel Leblanc, at a news conference regarding the loss of traffic.
The analysis conducted for the CCMM was released Friday, as the end of mandatory telework in Quebec approaches on Feb. 28.
It estimates that the decline in the number of workers using the country's major financial hub on a daily basis will be gradually offset "by the creation of new jobs generated by economic momentum and business growth."
The decrease in spending, however, "could be mitigated if workers maintain their spending levels by concentrating them on the few days they spend downtown The reduction in consumption also takes into account a decline in the number of residents, students and tourists," the analysis said.
The estimates are based on a Leger survey of 1,079 managers and employees whose place of work is on the Island of Montreal. It shows a clear preference for being in the office one to three days a week. Only 19 per cent of downtown workers want to return to their workplace full-time.
The analysis proposes actions to limit the shock of this loss of traffic in the heart of the Quebec metropolis and to prevent it from falling into a "devitalization spiral."
In particular, the analysis suggests improving the cultural and entertainment offerings and increasing the mix of building uses by promoting housing unit construction and diversifying types of businesses.
According to Leblanc, decision-makers need to foster the perception of a downtown that is pleasant to spend time in even after work. Bringing employees in a few days a week is like a business trip that combines meetings and activities, he said.
"It won't be every week, every day," said Leblanc. "But if we are in this state of mind that downtown Montreal is a destination for work, but pleasant in all other aspects, then we will increase the interest to come there and reduce the 25 per cent. And we're going to increase spending, so the 14 per cent may become a 10 per cent drop."
A "MINI MARSHALL PLAN"
The study, entitled "Revitalizing Downtown Montreal in a Changing Environment," also addresses the issue of online commerce.
Leblanc would like to see an initiative that would make life easier for entrepreneurs and merchants who want to re-launch business projects.
He called for the implementation of a "mini Marshall Plan," referring to the American aid program for the reconstruction and recovery of European cities devastated by the Second World War.
"Downtown Montreal was not bombed, but when you look at the commercial fabric, there are a lot of holes," he said. "We'll need a mini Marshall Plan in the next year to help with business projects... We need a strategy so that this downtown area, which is currently extremely fragile, does not keep its storefronts barricaded for a very long time"
Leblanc is calling on Quebec and Ottawa to intervene. He wants the various levels of government to provide more financial support for large-scale events that attract tourists from abroad.
Alongside him, Quebec Minister Responsible for the Montreal Metropolis Chantal Rouleau said that funding for major festivals will be maintained, without committing to additional support.
The PwC study also makes recommendations on worksite management and public transit accessibility to enhance the downtown experience.
There are also proposals aimed at employers to ease the transition to the hybrid work model.
-- This report by The Canadian Press was first published in French on Feb. 25, 2022.