The most powerful force motivating force for Quebec voters is an issue that’s not even on any official agenda: a possible referendum on Quebec sovereignty, according to an exclusive CTV Ipsos Reid poll on the state of mind of voters going into Monday's provincial vote.
One in four, or 24 percent, of Quebec voters reported that a referendum is the primary reason that they are voting. Three quarters of that number reported that they were voting to discourage the possibility of a referendum, while the other quarter were voting to support the possibility.
Liberal leader Philippe Couillard has gained from the introduction of the issue into the campaign, as 39 percent of those who say they will vote for his party replied in the online poll that they are doing so in order to stop a referendum.
In contrast, only 19 percent of those who are voting PQ are doing so in order to support a possible referendum. Bill 60, known as the Values Charter, or Secularism Charter, is a far less potent factor, as only seven percent of voters report that they are voting in order to oppose the ban on religious symbols, while five are casting votes in order to support it.
|
Top Three Ballot Box Driving Issues of Voters |
% Primary Issue |
% Secondary Issue |
Total |
|
To create a better economy and jobs |
13% |
12% |
26% |
|
To stop any potential referendum by the PQ |
18% |
7% |
25% |
|
Integrity in government and its leaders |
12% |
10% |
21% |
Thirteen percent of people polled identified the economy as their primary concern, while 12 percent replied that integrity is their prime issue motivating them to cast ballots.
When the respondents’ primary and secondary issues were combined, the most powerful motivation for voters was “to create a better economy and jobs.”
Liberal voters listed, in order of their priorities, a referendum, the economy and a rejection of the Values Charter.
PQ supporters were primarily motivated to support the Charter, followed by supporting a referendum, encourage integrity, and fourthly to battle corruption.
CAQ voters listed, in order of importance, lowering taxes, the economy, stopping a referendum, integrity and finally, addressing the debt and deficit.
Quebec Solidaire supporters expressed other issues as their top concern, while integrity was the secondary concern while the environment was their third-ranking preoccupation.
Suporters of the two leading parties hold radically differing views on the likelihood of a referendum under a PQ government. Only 19 percent of PQ supporters replied that “a majority PQ government would hold a referendum in its mandate no matter what,” while 83 percent of Liberal voters agreed with that statement. Overall, 54 percent of Quebecers surveyed replied that they consider it likely that the PQ would hold a referendum if elected to power.
Similarly, 94 percent of Liberal voters agreed that “a vote for the PQ is a vote for another referendum," while only 26 percent of PQ agreed with that statement. Overall 63 percent of Quebec voters agreed with the statement, while 37 percent disagreed.
|
Fourteen Lesser Motivating Ballot Box Voter Issues |
% Primary Issue |
% Secondary Issue |
Total |
|
Better healthcare |
7% |
11% |
18% |
|
Lower taxes |
6% |
8% |
13% |
|
Support the PQ Charter of Values |
7% |
6% |
13% |
|
Fight corruption |
5% |
7% |
12% |
|
Reject the PQ Charter of Values |
5% |
7% |
12% |
|
Debt repayment and balancing the budget |
5% |
6% |
11% |
|
Support any potential referendum by the PQ |
6% |
3% |
9% |
|
Protecting the environment |
3% |
2% |
5% |
|
Education funding and support |
2% |
2% |
4% |
|
Investments in public transportation |
1% |
2% |
3% |
|
Oppose oil and shale gas extraction |
1% |
2% |
3% |
|
Maintenance of road infrastructure |
1% |
1% |
2% |
|
Lower energy costs |
0% |
2% |
2% |
|
Other |
9% |
5% |
13% |
* Total figures may not sum exactly due to rounding
PQ voters also believe that their party would provide the best government, rather than aim to create winning conditions for a referendum, a notion which only 17 percent of PQ supporters agreed with.
Liberal voters responded largely in the oppose manner, stating that the PQ would focus more on a referendum (76%) over governing to the best of its ability (24%).
Ethics, shmethics: voters don't care
And while candidates have spent considerable time trying to expose their opponents’ more shameful past moments, voters – somewhat counter-intuitively – support the parties in an inverse relation to their perception of their ethical purity.
The fourth-placed Quebec Solidaire was ranked the best party in terms of integrity as 59 percent of Quebecers ranked it in the top two parties, while the third-ranked CAQ rated 45 percent in that same bracket.
The leading Liberals and PQ fared less impressively, as only 35 percent put the Liberals among the top two parties with the most integrity, while 32 did the same for the PQ. Thirty-eight percent of those polled ranked the Liberals last, while 34 percent did so for the PQ.
Some of the negative response towards the Liberals has cast a shadow on Liberal leader Couillard, as 59 percent agreed that his participation in the Charest government has led his “credibility to be tainted.”
Only 56 percent of voters say that they chose the party that they like the best, while 23 percent are doing so to block another party and 11 percent to express disgust with all of the other parties.
The CTV - Ipsos Reid poll online poll of 2,012 Quebecers was conducted between March 28 and April 1 and has a margin of error of 3.5 percent.
