Terrebonne byelection heading for a two-way fight between the PQ and the CAQ

The Terrebonne byelection looks set to be a two-way race between Francois Legault's CAQ and Paul St-Pierre Plamondon's PQ. The riding was once a PQ stronghold and one poll analyst said if the PQ wants to form a government, it needs to win in the Montreal suburb. (Ryan Remiorz, The Canadian Press)

The four elected Parti Quebecois (PQ) members did not hesitate: a few hours after the resignation of CAQ super-minister Pierre Fitzgibbon, they boarded what looked like a campaign bus on Thursday and headed for the now vacant riding of Terrebonne to hold a rally.

The signal is clear: PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon wants to win back this former PQ stronghold.

However, the battle is still far from won, as the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) is not going to let the riding on Montreal's North Shore slip through its fingers.

Poll aggregator Qc125 creator Philippe J. Fournier said that if the PQ doesn't win Terrebonne, it can't win the general election.

"There's no scenario where the PQ wins the most seats -- even a minority -- and Terrebonne isn't one of them," he said in an interview with The Canadian Press.

This is because, unlike Jean-Talon, which was never PQ before Pascal Paradis' surprise victory last October, Terrebonne was a PQ stronghold for several decades.

A former PQ stronghold

Between 1976 and 2018, the PQ lost Terrebonne just once to Mario Dumont's Action Démocratique du Québec in 2007.

The ADQ's reign was short-lived, however, as the PQ won back the riding in 2008.

In 2018, the CAQ won its first majority mandate, and Pierre Fitzgibbon won the riding from outgoing PQ MNA Mathieu Traversy. The man who would become the Legault government's super-minister of the Economy, Innovation and Energy retained the riding in 2022 with 49 per cent of the vote.

The PQ took just 19 per cent.

The pressure on the CAQ is, therefore, also very great in the coming constituency.

"If the CAQ starts losing ridings it won by 30 per cent, it doesn't look good," said Fournier.

The importance of the 450

According to the Qc125 creator, the suburbs around Montreal will be crucial in the next provincial election: "If you don't win the 450, you won't be close to power. (...) Is the PQ really back in the Montreal suburbs? It's going to be a good test," he said.

For the moment, his poll aggregator puts Terrebonne in the category of likely gains for the PQ, but Fournier said "the margin of error is large when you don't have local polls."

The latest polls put the PQ in the lead in terms of voting intentions province-wide. The CAQ is in second place. The two political parties are the ones that attract the most French-speaking voters, and Terrebonne has a very high percentage (93 per cent) of people whose "language spoken most often at home" is French, according to Elections Québec.

The battle between the PQ and the CAQ in Terrebonne will, therefore, be a tough one, especially as the two political parties are communicating vessels in terms of voters.

The other political parties (the Quebec Liberal Party, Québec Solidaire and Éric Duhaime's Conservative Party) are not really competitive at the moment, according to Qc125.

The government has six months to call a byelection following the departure of an MNA. The estimated cost of such an election is $725,000. No party has yet nominated a candidate.

The electoral division of Terrebonne was created in 1929 and is located in the Lanaudière region.

"The toponym refers to the name of the seigneury of Terrebonne or Terbonne, granted to André Daulier Deslandes (...) in 1673. The name of his seigneury is said to have been given because of the fertility of the land," the Elections Québec website says.

Terrebonne by the numbers

• Population: 80,607
• Number of registered electors: 60,184
• Surface area: 86.61 km2
• Average income for households of two people or less: $127,800
• Source: Élections Québec

This report by The Canadian Press was first published in French on Sept. 7, 2024.