Study estimates Quebec actually had 58,000 new COVID-19 cases per day last week
How big has the Omicron wave been in Quebec? Much, much bigger than people think, according to a new study that estimated the full, uncounted number of infections in mid-January.
Quebecers have already known for a few weeks that the official case numbers released each day did not reflect the true spread of the virus, since most people have been unable to get a test.
The province maxed out its testing capacity before Christmas and then officially limited tests to only a few groups, including health-care workers and teachers. At the same time, even at-home rapid tests were nearly impossible to get.
In the week the researchers studied, Jan. 13 to 18, official case counts hovered roughly between 4,000 and 6,000 new cases each day.
In reality, there were probably "an average of 35,000 to 40,000 positive tests per day in Quebec during the period," the researchers found, if you include rapid tests.
And the full daily prevalence of new cases is even higher: they ended up estimating it at 58,144 on average, per day, in that week.
They used several methods to include not only the official PCR test results, but at-home rapid tests and people who had COVID-19 symptoms but didn't take any test, and who very likely had the virus.
The rapid tests alone, not taking into account the untested cases, caused the scientists' estimates to balloon five-fold.
"Regardless of the method and estimator used (excluding self-diagnosis), we obtain an incidence that is about five times higher than the official figure," the researchers wrote.
If those numbers seem high, think again, said Dr. Christopher Labos, an epidemiologist at McGill University.
"I think it makes sense. I think it's very reasonable," he said after reviewing the study's estimates. Labos did not contribute to the research.
"I think most people realize that the number of cases being reported is an under-report," he said.
"There's a lot of people that are going undiagnosed because they're either diagnosing themselves with symptoms, or they're getting rapid tests, which are not reflected in the official numbers. So the daily case counts are certainly underestimates."
The government knows this as well, which is why "you've seen [it] sort of rely increasingly on the number of hospitalizations as an indication of how things are going," he explained.
Based on hospitalizations, it seems as if new cases are likely stabilizing, he said -- something authorities said they were starting to see over the last week.
"The inference [is] that because the new number of hospitalizations has been relatively stable recently... things have sort of started to level off here, and that we might be past the worst of the Omicron wave," he said.
However, Labos said it's important for the government to find a way to begin including positive rapid tests, at least, into its own official counts. They're reliable enough for that, he said.
"We have to also try to find some way to incorporate the rapid antigen tests into our testing numbers," he said.
"Those are valid tests. If you have classic COVID symptoms in a positive antigen test, I mean, it's a pretty fair assumption that you actually have COVID -- I think the test would be very reliable in that context."
The researchers behind Friday's study plan to repeat the survey over the next four weeks in a row to follow "the evolution" of the virus's curve, using their own metrics.
This is a developing story that will be updated.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
'They needed people inside Air Canada:' Police announce arrests in Pearson gold heist
Police say one former and one current employee of Air Canada are among the nine suspects that are facing charges in connection with the gold heist at Pearson International Airport last year.
Disappointment widespread over budget's proposed $200-month disability benefit funding
Advocacy groups across Canada are expressing widespread disappointment about the amount of funding earmarked in the 2024 federal budget for the long-awaited Canada Disability Benefit.
BREAKING Toronto Raptors player Jontay Porter banned from NBA
Toronto Raptors player Jontay Porter has been handed a lifetime ban from The National Basketball Association (NBA) following an investigation which found he disclosed confidential information to sports bettors, the league says.
Earthquake jolts southern Japan
An earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 6.4 hit southern Japan late on Wednesday, said the Japan Meteorological Agency, without issuing a tsunami warning.
ArriveCan contractor to be admonished by MPs in extraordinarily rare parliamentary display
Enacting an extraordinarily rarely used parliamentary power, MPs have summoned an ArriveCan contractor to appear before the House of Commons on Wednesday afternoon to be admonished publicly for failing to answer their questions.
opinion Don Martin: Gusher of Liberal spending won't put out the fire in this dumpster
A Hail Mary rehash of the greatest hits from the Trudeau government’s three-week travelling pony-show, the 2024 federal budget takes aim at reversing the party’s popularity plunge in the under-40 set, writes political columnist Don Martin. But will it work before the next election?
Gas prices across Ontario expected to climb to levels not seen since 2022, analyst says
Ontario is going to see a big jump at the pumps later this week as gas prices in the province hit levels not seen in nearly two years, according to one industry analyst.
Ancient skeletons unearthed in France reveal Mafia-style killings
More than 5,500 years ago, two women were tied up and probably buried alive in a ritual sacrifice, using a form of torture associated today with the Italian Mafia, according to an analysis of skeletons discovered at an archeological site in southwest France.
Paul McCartney and John Lennon’s sons have released a single together
A new Lennon and McCartney collaboration is the last thing anybody expected.