MONTREAL -- There is a particular type of contempt that should be reserved for the captain whose actions, whether by negligence, incompetence or purpose, end up with the floundering of his ship and the loss of its crew and passengers.

His duty as the highest authority available, short of God himself, demand that he prioritize their safety above all. In past centuries, dereliction of duty which imperiled the lives of passengers brought charges of homicide. If the captain of the Titanic, having dismissed warnings and decided not to avoid the iceberg, would have -- if he had survived -- been shown little mercy by the courts.

Unlike sea captains, politicians do not face reckoning for their sins through the courts, but mainly through the ballot box. But the COVID-19 pandemic has exposed fault lines in our society and has drawn new worldwide attention to the need to hold government officials to account, in the courts, for their blunders.

A Brazilian court's recent decision to order an investigation into the Health Minister's handling of the pandemic has set a precedent in domestic law. Also in Brazil, a group representing more than a million medical professionals has filed a complaint to the International Criminal Court accusing president Bolsonaro of committing a crime against humanity for his mishandling of the pandemic.

Analyses from the Council on Foreign Relations and from Foreign Policy magazine agree that mismanagement of public health could rise to the level of a crime against humanity, if a government fails to take appropriate action to protect its citizens or conceals crucial information that could result in thousands of deaths.

This brings us to the Quebec government's handling of schools. To be clear, the issue has never been about keeping schools open during the pandemic -- it is about keeping schools open safely. The skyrocketing number of school outbreaks during the fall semester confirmed experts' repeated warnings that the lax school measures contributed to making schools major spreaders of the virus, with the vast majority of victims eventually being the elderly and most vulnerable.

Government optimism about the reduction in case counts since mid-January is premature, as rates per 100,000 among people age five to 19 are currently leading those in all other age groups. As experts predicted, the number of outbreaks in Montreal schools has soared, from six to 74 in the two-week period from Jan.19 to Feb. 2, mostly in elementary schools. Meanwhile, 6,242 Quebec students and staff have tested positive since schools reopened Feb. 5.

These indicators are precursors of worse things to come as transmission will inevitably spread to the community with devastating consequences.

Another indication that this may be the calm before the storm, with government officials very worried, is a new INSPQ mathematical modelling study which compared health impacts from the January reopening schedule (Jan. 11 for elementary schools and Jan. 18 for high schools) versus reopening on Feb. 8 for all schools, taking curfew and lockdown into account in both cases.

covid chart quebec INSPQ

The study predicted that the January school reopening would be followed by a surge in transmissions, hospitalizations and deaths by mid to late February. A visual comparison from the study charts' median estimates shows that roughly four deaths a day in Montreal would be prevented in early March if schools would have opened on Feb. 8 instead of January -- which is equivalent to about 120 excess deaths a month. 

According to report's worst-case estimate, roughly 40 deaths a day would be prevented in early March by opening Montreal schools Feb. 8, or about 1,200 additional deaths over a 30-day period. The model does not account for non-COVID deaths resulting from hospital overflows, denial of essential treatments, and other fallout.

Premier Legault has seen this report. Its findings show part of the risk he is "willing to take" by opening schools under unsafe conditions before Feb. 8. His "calculated risk" can now be quantified in the number of human lives lost. The appalling ICU triage protocol, laying out who will get lifesaving care in case resources get tight, is also part of Mr. Legault's "calculated risk."

Contact tracing from other parts of Canada has found many cases linking youths to infected elderly family members who never leave the house. The Quebec government should have an abundance of data, much of it in the form of contact tracing showing the extent of transmission from schools to home, including the associated numbers of hospitalizations and deaths in affected families and especially in those living in poverty and in multigenerational households.

But government officials are refusing to release this information, against all public health standards of trust and transparency. We are being kept in the dark in the same way that we are not allowed to see the ravages of COVID-19 in hospitals. What is so disturbing about this data that it must be hidden from view, Mr. Legault?

Extending restrictions and curfews past Feb. 8, while turning a blind eye to the urgency of controlling the spread of coronavirus from schools to the community, makes as much sense as pumping water from a sinking ship without attempting to seal the breach to stop the flooding.

If the INSPQ's dire predictions are correct, Montreal may be in for a rough ride comes March. Meanwhile, the vaccine deployment in Quebec is coming too slowly to prevent major harm and loss of life. New mutation of the virus, more lethal and contagious, are emerging; the longer we allow this to go on, the greater the risk of these becoming dominant. 

Yet the government has shown no inclination to change its feckless approach in managing the school situation. Effective measures to get the numbers down to zero have proven successful in Australia and New Zealand but our government has chosen to rebuff them. Mr. Legault, can't you hear the thunder?

There is a clear message for those at the helm -- to Mr. Legault, to his ministers and public health directors. That message is, "Iceberg Right Ahead!"

Michael Levy holds a MPH (Masters' in Environmental Health) and is an environmental health specialist and epidemiologist.