Montreal byelection expected to be a tight race between Liberals, NDP: analyst

The countdown is on for the byelection in the Montreal riding of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun and it's shaping up to be a close race between the Liberals and the NDP, according to one political analyst.

The riding has been a Liberal stronghold since its creation in 2015 but there are signs that political stripes might be changing when voters head to the polls on Sept. 16.

"We see that Justin Trudeau's popularity is quite low and I think that although the Liberals are still the favourite to win in that riding, that the Bloc [Québécois] and especially the NDP probably have a shot at this. It's not impossible for them to win and they know that," said Daniel Béland, the director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada.

The Bloc finished in second place in the last two elections in 2021 and 2019, but if Liberal voters change their party affiliation this year he said he believes the NDP has a slight edge since the party's candidate is a well-known municipal politician, Craig Sauvé. Sauvé has been a Southwest borough city councillor since 2013.

"It's really a race between the Liberals, the NDP and to a lesser extent the Bloc [Québécois] because I think people who voted for the Liberals in the past are more likely to turn to the NDP," Béland said.

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh was in the riding Monday to support his candidate the day after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau officially called the byelection for next month. Singh helped put up campaign posters highlighting key issues on the minds of voters, such as affordable housing and health care.

"People that can see the NDP as a real alternative that's going to stand up for them," Sauvé said. "They’re looking for change right now, it’s incredible what I’m seeing at the doors, and that goes for every quadrant of this riding."

The NDP came third in 2021 securing just under 20 per cent of the vote.

The seat became vacant after David Lametti, the former justice minister, announced in January that he was resigning. He won the riding with a whopping 42.9 per cent of the votes.

This byelection will be closely watched after the Conservative Party swiped the Toronto-St. Paul riding — another Liberal stronghold — in a surprising upset for Team Trudeau last month.

But according to Béland, the Tories' candidate, entrepreneur Louis Ialenti, is "very, very, very unlikely to win" given the fact that the party placed fourth in all previous elections in the riding.

Meanwhile, the Bloc announced their candidate would be Louis-Philippe Sauvé, the communications and administration coordinator at the Institut de recherche en économie contemporaine (IREC) and a former Bloc political staffer.

The Liberals already got off to a rocky start. Instead of having a nomination process to elect a candidate, the prime minister hand-picked one: LaSalle borough city councillor Laura Palestini. The move was criticized as "anti-democratic" even within the party. Palestini did not respond to an interview request on Monday.

"The prime minister imposed a candidate," said Béland, who suspects the resentment felt by longtime Liberal supporters and volunteers could hurt the party's chances of winning again.

The cost of living, housing, and health care are expected to be key election issues, but Trudeau's popularity will also have an important role at the ballot box, he said.

"Once you've been in power for almost nine years, people hold grudges and grievances and the Conservatives have been quite effective at criticizing the Liberals but it doesn't mean that people will necessarily support the Conservatives in that riding," Béland said.

The Bloc's Sauvé is using the "dissatisfaction" with the Liberals as fuel for his campaign, which he said will be one of "hope of a better future" for Quebec, including the anglophone community.

"I'm going to run a positive campaign and I'll do my best and I'll give everything I have to convince the people of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun that I am the best person to become the next member of Parliament of this riding," he said in an interview Monday.

"I think that the English-speaking community in Quebec is as Québécois as any Québécois in this province and I think that throughout this campaign people of Montreal, the anglo community, will see that they are as Québécois as we are and I'll do my best to convince them that our interests are the same."

By the numbers

2021 federal election results - LaSalle--Émard--Verdun

Liberal Party	20,330 votes	42.29 per cent
Bloc Québécois	10,461 votes	22.1 per cent
NDP	9,168 votes	19.4 per cent
Conservative Party	3,530 votes	7.5 per cent

• Total valid ballots cast in 2021: 47,360
• Riding population: 107,564
• Number of electors: 79,869