Quebec Liberals could lose Montreal strongholds, other ridings to CAQ: polls

After losing all seats except those in and around the Montreal and Gatineau regions, new polling results suggest the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) may lose some strongholds to the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) this October.

The CAQ won two seats on the Island of Montreal in 2018 -- Bourget and Pointe-aux-Trembles.

Province-wide poll projections now show four ridings leaning towards the CAQ, with four more toss-ups that could vote in favour of Premier François Legault's party.

According to 125Quebec.com, the Liberals losing to the CAQ in Anjou-Louis-Riel, Marquette and Verdun.

Liberal MNA Lise Theriault won Anjour-Louis-Riel in 2018 with more than 10 per cent of the vote, but polls are showing former city councillor Karine Bouvin-Roy ahead by about six per cent. Theriault is not running in October.

CAQ candidate Marc Baaklini, a business developer for non-profit Prompt, is ahead in Marquette by a similar margin, potentially taking the seat from Liberal and ex-NHLer Enrico Ciccone, who won by just under 15 per cent in 2018 and by a landslide 62.5 per cent in 2014.

In Verdun, Quebec125 has Orleans Express co-founder Nicole Leduc leading for the CAQ by six per cent.

In the last election, Liberal Isabelle Melaçon won 35.5 per cent of the vote, over 10 percentage points higher than her Québec solidaire (QS) and CAQ challengers -- a drop from 50.6 per cent in 2014.

The polling site has the CAQ holding onto all the seats it won in 2018 (74), with the party "safe" in 63 ridings, "likely" in 18 ridings and "leaning" in 18 ridings with one toss-up.

In Montreal, the Maurice-Richard riding, which is currently held by former-Liberal now Independent MNA Marie Montpetit, is looking like a toss-up between the CAQ (32 per cent) and Québec solidaire (QS) (27 per cent).

The CAQ is also threatening current Liberal seats in Bourassa-Sauvé, Marguerite-Bourgeoys and Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne on the Island of Montreal.

CAQ COULD TAKE NON-MONTREAL RIDINGS

North of the Island of Montreal, Fabre, Mille-Îles, Vimont and Laval-des-Rapides are leaning towards the CAQ, away from the Liberals; similarly so are the ridings of La Pinière and Laporte in the Montérégie.

Hull and Vaudreuil could also shift.

The Liberals are not the only party that could lose seats, with the Parti Québécois only "safe" in Matane-Matapédia.

QS has its work cut out in some of its stronger ridings, with the CAQ threatening its Rosemont and Sherbrooke seats (polls are within one per cent).

LEGAULT'S APPROVAL DOWN

Nevertheless, things may not all be coming up rosy for the CAQ.

A national Angus Reid poll published last week showed approval ratings for Legault dipping below 50 per cent to 44 (down eight).

"While Legault's approval has trended slightly downwards over the last quarter among French-speaking Quebecers, it has dropped much more precipitously among anglophones," Angus Reid said. "Elsewhere, perhaps the Quebec government's performance on key issues is also dragging down Legault's approval across the electorate. As a fall election looms, three-quarters (73 per cent) of Quebecers say Legault and the CAQ government are doing a 'poor job' on health care."

It's the first time he has dipped below 50 per cent and those approving of his leadership are significantly less than the 77 per cent he had in June 2020.