Conservative Party gaining ground in Quebec: poll

The Conservatives haven't traditionally done well with Quebec voters, but new polling is showing the official Opposition is gaining support among the electorate.

The Conservative Party of Canada (25 per cent) is trailing right behind the Liberals, who now have 28 per cent support of Quebec voters, according to a recent Pallas Data poll.

The two parties are in a statistical tie with the Bloc Québécois, which is leading at 29 per cent in Quebec. A similar tie is playing out in Ontario, with the Tories (38 per cent) and Liberals (36 per cent) neck-and-neck.

The polling falls in line with a Léger survey last month that put the Conservatives at 25 per cent in Quebec.

"We have four polls in the last six weeks that have the Conservatives above the 20 per cent mark in Quebec, so this seems to be more than just fluctuation. It seems to be a modest but real trend upward for the Conservatives," said Philippe J. Fournier, a poll analyst and founder of 338Canada.com -- which commissioned the Pallas Data poll -- in an interview. 

There is a tight race in Quebec between the Conservatives, Liberal and Bloc Québécois, according to a Pallas Data poll. (Source: Pallas/338Canada.com)

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre will hold his party's convention in September in Quebec City, which Fournier believes is "not a coincidence."

Even though the Tories are gaining ground, the Quebec-based analyst told CTV News their first target in the province will be the Bloc Québécois, which has 32 seats in the House of Commons.

"When we look at the seats in rural Quebec and suburban Quebec, the seats that they are targeting are mostly Bloc Québécois seats. Of course, if the Conservatives continue to surge in Quebec, it will also hurt the Liberals eventually, but right now, it's Yves-François Blanchet who, at some point, will have to hold off this Conservative upswing," Fournier said.

CONSERVATIVES LEADING BY 9 POINTS NATIONALLY

Taking a look at the bigger picture, there is a sizeable, nine-point lead nationally for the Conservatives (39 per cent) over the governing Liberal party (30 per cent), the survey shows.

There is a tight race in Quebec between the Conservatives, Liberal and Bloc Québécois, according to a Pallas Data poll. (Source: Pallas/338Canada.com)

The Pallas Data poll was conducted on the phone between Aug. 16 and 17 among 1,021 respondents, who were also asked if Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau was considered an asset for the party.

Just under half (47 per cent) of voters said they would be more likely to vote for the Liberals if Trudeau was no longer at the helm.

The numbers show a clear generational divide as opposition to Trudeau was stronger among younger demographics. Voters between 18-34 and those aged 35-49 both said they would be more likely to vote Liberal if Trudeau stepped down, at 57 per cent and 52 per cent, respectively.

A Pallas Data poll says a majority of Canadians said they would vote for the Liberal Party of Canada if Justin Trudeau stepped down. (Source: Pallas/338Canada.com)

On Monday, Trudeau spoke publicly for the first time about his recent separation from his wife, Sophie Gregoire Trudeau, and about the concerns that the challenges in his personal life might hurt him politically.

Asked by a reporter if he's concerned about the possibility that he's become a "liability" for his party, he responded with comments about polarization among Canadians since the pandemic, adding that he's "not giving up on anyone."

"I'm going to continue working hard every day to build that future that we all know Canada can have. We are the best country in the world, let's keep making it better," he said.