Bloc ahead in crucial Montreal byelection, according to poll

Campaign signs are seen ahead of a federal byelection in Lasalle, Que., Monday, Sept. 9, 2024. A federal byelection will be held in the riding of Lasalle-Emard-Verdun on Monday, Sept. 16. (Christinne Muschi, The Canadian Press)

The Liberal stronghold of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun could well fall next Monday: a recent poll by Mainstreet Research reveals that the Bloc Québécois candidate, Louis-Philippe Sauvé, is ahead in voting intentions in this riding, where byelections are due to be held and the outcome will have a national impact.

The poll gives 29.6 per cent support to the Bloc. The Liberal Party of Canada candidate, Laura Palestini, came second with 24.1 per cent, and the New Democratic Party (NDP) candidate, Craig Sauvé, won 23.0 per cent of respondents. Conservative Party of Canada candidate Louis Ialenti is virtually out of the running with 7.3 per cent.

The survey was conducted from Saturday to Monday by automated calls to 443 adults living in the riding. Its margin of error is 4.7 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

It confirms that the Bloc Québécois is maintaining its lead, whereas another poll conducted on Sept. 3 and 4 by the same firm gave 30.7 per cent to the Bloc, 23.3 per cent to the Liberals, 19.4 per cent to the NDP and 8.1 per cent to the Conservatives. The Canadian Press was able to consult this poll, the results of which were not made public.

On Wednesday, Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet was already sniffing out victory.

"It smells good, it smells very good," he told volunteers as they entered the campaign office.

And to reporters, he explained that he was "at the point where we're running towards the finish line, without looking at the distance from those who may be behind."

But in an interview with The Canadian Press on Wednesday evening, Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research, warned that "nothing is decided yet."

According to Maggi, the most interesting element of the poll is the NDP's strong advance in just a few days, a situation he attributes to Jagmeet Singh's announcement that his party is tearing up the agreement that allowed Justin Trudeau's Liberals to remain in power without too much fear.

He explained that he and his team decided to carry out the second poll after observing in the first that voting intentions for the NDP were rising significantly on the second day of polling, the day after the announcement.

And the NDP's rise could continue, he believes.

"Could they catch up? Yes, they could."

Conversely, Maggi believes the Bloc made "a big mistake" and could lose some feathers after signalling in recent days that it would consider supporting the Liberals in confidence votes in exchange for items close to its heart, such as increasing seniors' pensions or more immigration powers for Quebec.

"Voters were saying, 'We weren't going to vote for the NDP because they supported the Liberals. And now our party, the Bloc, is going to support the Liberals? Maybe I should change my vote in this context,'" he illustrated.

As for the Liberals, their "path" to victory is based on splitting the vote and hoping that the opposition vote doesn't "coagulate" around one of the other parties.

Exit polling - efforts to get voters out to the polls on election day - is an important element in elections, particularly in byelections, when the outcome won't make much difference to the make-up of the House of Commons, explained University of Ottawa political scientist Geneviève Tellier.

Beyond the electoral machines, the Bloc enjoys a premium at the ballot box. Their hidden card lies in the fact that their voters are generally older than those of their opponents.

In fact, an Elections Canada study published last year estimated that 46.7 per cent of 18-24 year-olds turned out at the polls in the last general election, compared to 74.9 per cent of 65-74 year-olds.

Monday's contest in LaSalle-Émard-Verdun will be much more than a regional race, insists Professor Tellier, as observers deconstruct the message sent by the result.

"We want to know whether the Liberals are capable of holding on to their strongholds and whether what happened in Toronto-St. Paul's (where they suffered a crushing defeat in June) was just a bump in the road, or whether there's a strong trend emerging," she summarized.

In her opinion, a defeat would be "dramatic" for the Liberals. As for the Bloc and the NDP, it will be a matter of determining who positions themselves as the best alternative to the Liberals.

In the last election, former Justice Minister David Lametti was re-elected with 42.9 per cent of the vote, finishing well ahead of his opponents.

The Bloc candidate won 22.1 per cent of the vote, the NDP came third (19.4 per cent) and the Conservative obtained 7.5 per cent. The People's Party candidate obtained 3.4 per cent and the Green Party candidate 3.0 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published in French on Sept. 12, 2024.