Are Quebec Liberal strongholds safe?
The Quebec Liberal Party will need to fend off even more competition this Oct. 3 if it wants to hold on to its seats, and it appears some Liberal strongholds are not as safe as they used to be.
For decades, the Liberals have enjoyed strong support on Montreal’s West Island and South Shore. While polls suggest Liberal support remains strong in those areas, increased competition means the party will have to consider new avenues to Quebec City.
Other parties have grown in popularity. Francois Legault’s CAQ is expected to sweep the province for a majority mandate, Quebec Solidaire is a strong contender to beat the Liberals in the popular vote, and there are three other parties (the Quebec Conservatives, The Canadian Party of Quebec, and Bloc Montreal) contending for English votes.
Meanwhile, political analysts say the party will need to do more to reach French-speaking voters if it wants to approach the CAQ’s base.
“The numbers that we have among Francophones are atrocious for the Liberals,” said poll analyst Phillippe J. Fournier. “Among non-Francophones and Anglophones, it’s much lower than it’s been.”
On the weekend prior to the election, poll aggregate QC125 suggests several former Liberal strongholds could be lost to other parties.
Verdun, which in 2014 went 50.6 per cent in favour to the Liberals, is now a toss-up between that party, Quebec Solidaire (QS), and the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ).
Supporters take pictures of Quebec Liberal Leader Dominique Anglade’s campaign bus as she arrives to a luncheon in Brossard, Que., Thursday, Sept. 29, 2022. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Paul Chiasson
Perhaps even more troubling for the party, in Liberal leader Dominique Anglade’s riding of Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne, there is also considerable QS and CAQ support.
That riding went deep red in 2014 with 50 per cent support, though that popularity has declined over time. Today, it’s just 30 per cent.
“I think certain seats are still safely in the Liberal column in the West Island, but you might see the majorities in those seats melt substantially,” said political analyst David Heurtel. “When Liberal voters are mad at the party, the way they react is they plain stay home.”
While not on the West Island, other ridings traditionally considered Liberal safe zones have seen inclines of support for other parties.
For example, the CAQ could pick up La Piniere on the South Shore, previously held by former health minister Gaeten Barrette.
Neighbouring Laporte is actually polling in favour of the CAQ after 49 per cent of residents there voted Liberal in 2014.
CTVNews.ca Top Stories
DEVELOPING Iran fires at suspected Israeli attack drones near Isfahan air base and nuclear site
Iran fired air defences at a major air base and a nuclear site early Friday morning near the central city of Isfahan after spotting drones, which were suspected to be part of an Israeli attack in retaliation for Tehran's unprecedented drone-and-missile assault on the country.
NEW After hearing thousands of last words, this hospital chaplain has advice for the living
In his new book 'As Long as You Need', hospital chaplain J.S. Park opens up about death, grief and hearing thousands of last words.
LeBlanc says he plans to run in next election, under Trudeau's leadership
Cabinet minister Dominic LeBlanc says he plans to run in the next election as a candidate under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's leadership, amid questions about his rumoured interest in succeeding his longtime friend for the top job.
Prince Harry formally confirms he is now a U.S. resident
Prince Harry, the son of King Charles III and fifth in line to the British throne, has formally confirmed he is now a U.S. resident.
Trend Line Anger, pessimism towards federal government reach six-year high: Nanos survey
Most Canadians in March reported feeling angry or pessimistic towards the federal government than at any point in the last six years, according to a survey by Nanos Research.
Colin Jost names one celebrity who is great at hosting 'Saturday Night Live'
Colin Jost, who co-anchors Saturday Night Live's 'Weekend Update,' revealed who he thinks is one of the best hosts on the show.
American millionaire Jonathan Lehrer denied bail after being charged with killing Canadian couple
American millionaire Jonathan Lehrer, one of two men charged in the killings of a Canadian couple in Dominica, has been denied bail.
Nearly half of China's major cities are sinking, researchers say
Nearly half of China's major cities are suffering 'moderate to severe' levels of subsidence, putting millions at risk of flooding especially as sea levels rise.
Judge says 'no evidence fully supports' murder case against Umar Zameer as jury starts deliberations
The judge presiding over the trial of a man accused of fatally running over a Toronto police officer is telling jurors the possible verdicts they may reach based on the evidence in the case.