A debate and week later, polls show little change in CAQ appeal

A week and leaders' debate later, and the song remains relatively unchanged in the polls heading towards the Oct. 3 Quebec election.

The poll aggregator site Quebec125.com still has the CAQ winning between 80 and 106 seats (97 likely) which is much the same as it was a week ago.

Since the campaign began, polls suggest 40 per cent of voters will vote for Francois Legault's party.

Dominique Anglade's Liberal party remains static at 17 per cent of the vote with the party winning in between 11 and 24 ridings (17 likely), as does the PQ with its 10 per cent of the vote and between one and five seats (one likely).

After shooting up to 17 per cent voter intention, Éric Duhaime's Conservative Party of Quebec (PCQ) dropped to 15 per cent with between zero and five seats.

An area of concern for Duhaime has to be the Lotbinière-Frontenac riding, where the PCQ was running close to challenging CAQ incumbent Isabelle Lecours two weeks ago. At that time, PCQ candidate Christian Gauthier was polling at 37 per cent of the vote to Lecours' 40 per cent.

As of Sunday, Lecours is polling at 44 per cent to Gauthier's 31 per cent, and the seat is looking like a solid CAQ hold.

The three ridings the PCQ is most competitive in are Beauce North and South and Chaveau (Duhaime's riding).

Quebec Solidaire (QS) numbers remain similar to when the campaign began. The party is polling with a likely haul of between five and 16 seats (10 likely), and 15 per cent of the popular vote, up from 13. 

Party co-spokesperson Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois was in Sherbrooke on the weekend, where the party is determined to keep that seat and perhaps turn a few neighbouring ridings orange. 

Sherbrooke is neck-and-neck with the CAQ, polling at 36 per cent to the QS' 35 per cent. QS is making gains in Saint-Francois (next to Sherbrooke) with Mélissa Généreux polling at 32 per cent to CAQ incumbent Geneviève Hébert's 34.

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THE BATTLE FOR SECOND

While first-choice voting intentions are fairly clear based on polls, the discussion becomes more interesting when voters were asked who they would like as the official opposition or as a second choice.

A Leger poll for the Journal de Montreal and TVA found that 22 per cent of voters would choose the PQ second, 16 per cent would vote for QS, 15 per cent for the CAQ, 10 per cent for the PLQ and six per cent would vote for the Conservatives second.

Voters were asked who their second choice was of the Quebec political parties.

When it comes to the official opposition party, 28 per cent want to see QS questioning the CAQ, 21 per cent would prefer the PQ, 15 per cent the PCQ and 14 per cent the Liberals. 

With the CAQ assumed winners on Oct. 3, voters were asked who the preferred opposition party would be.

Below are updated charts of voting intentions from Quebec125.com.

 

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