A cool, dry autumn forecasted for Quebec

In this photo taken using a drone, a church spire breaks the continuous color of Fall foliage, on Tuesday, Oct. 11, 2022 in Chelsea, Quebec. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld

While the summer in Quebec was marked by climatic disturbances, autumn is shaping up to be rather dry, with temperatures slightly below seasonal normals.

After a season marked by forest fires, floods, tornado warnings and late heatwaves, weather forecasts predict a fall without major upheavals, at least for Quebec and Ontario.

According to Météomédia forecasts, temperatures in both provinces will be close to normal over the next few weeks, or slightly below.

A TASTE OF WINTER

Cool air arriving as early as October could give the impression of an early winter.

"We're going to have a rather mild, rather pleasant September, but at mid-season, somewhere in October, we should have a few significant bursts of cool air that should last several weeks and make us feel like winter," but "we're expecting the pendulum to swing back in November and early December with above-normal temperatures," explained André Monette, head of meteorology at Météomédia.

A DRY AUTUMN

Precipitation and the number of storms should be below normal, and Quebec and Ontario will experience a relatively dry autumn, according to forecasts.

"Precipitation deficits are forecast for the more northern regions, but closer-to-normal precipitation for the St. Lawrence Valley. And probably fewer fall storms, but when they do occur, they could be stronger," said Monette.

Big storms like the one that caused strong winds on Halloween last year in some regions could occur due to "large systems that could have significant repercussions," he said.

"We're forecasting a lot of mildness in the western part of the country and in the southern U.S., which could lead to a big temperature contrast between the cold in Hudson Bay and the heat in the southern U.S. The bigger the contrast, the bigger the storms can be."

Météomédia has yet to give official predictions for the winter season, but "the start of winter should be mild," said the meteorologist.

STORMS IN THE MARITIMES

The Maritimes should see temperatures closer to normal in the fall, as the warm Atlantic Ocean favours mildness for Nova Scotia and the Avalon Peninsula, according to Météomédia.

However, abnormally warm waters in the Atlantic Ocean can also amplify storms and hurricanes, which will be watched for until the second half of October.

Environment Canada is closely monitoring when Hurricane Lee is expected to turn northwest, and expects it to impact the region by the weekend.

WILDFIRES IN THE WEST

Temperatures in the western provinces are expected to be above seasonal norms, due in part to El Niño.

According to Monette, "the risk of drought and fire in the first half of the season should be closely monitored, as precipitation will be close to or below normal over most of the territory." 

This report by The Canadian Press was first published in French on Sept. 13, 2023.