First poll shows Denis Coderre is man to beat
Published Monday, October 7, 2013 8:31AM EDT
Last Updated Monday, October 7, 2013 9:02PM EDT
With one month to go in the municipal election campaign Denis Coderre is the man with the most name-recognition, and correspondingly the most support from members of the public.
A Leger Marketing poll released Monday shows 39 per cent of Montrealers are likely to vote for Coderre, the former Liberal MP.
Projet Montreal leader Richard Bergeron is a distant second with the support of 23 per cent of Montrealers.
Marcel Coté and Melanie Joly have the support of 17 and 16 per cent of the population, respectively.
Name recognition appears to be a key factor in the campaign, with 51 per cent of those asked not knowing who Coté is, and 57 per cent say they have never heard of Joly.
Regional breakdowns: Bergeron, Joly in second
Leger broke down the poll results by district, and Coderre was the leading candidate everywhere except the city's central core. Bergeron had a slim leadership margin over Coderre in the Ville-Marie, Plateau and Rosemont boroughs, at 33 per cent to Coderre's 30.
In the eastern, northern and southern parts of Montreal, Bergeron was the second choice for many voters, but twice as many people preferred Coderre.
In western Montreal and the West Island boroughs, Coderre was still the candidate to beat, with a substantial minority making Joly the second-place candidate.
Coté, who created a coalition with former mayoral candidate Louise Harel, was not the first or second pick in any borough or region.
Coderre, an experienced politician, was cautiously optimistic after reading news of the poll.
"We have to keep our powder dry. It's my tenth election. I lost three times before I won. You know you don't want to be shovelling the clouds. So I think that... stay the course," said Coderre.
Coté, who was known in business circles as a successful marketer and analyst, said he was happy with what the poll said.
"I think that to be known by half the population in three months is not bad. I was a total unknown," Coté said.
"When they get to know me, and they'll see a lot of me over the next four weeks, I'm sure that Montrealers will come to my side."
Bergeron was not available for comment.
Newcomer Melanie Joly, who was not invited to participate in several debates including CTV’s, has had a turn of fate. Thanks to a decent showing in the polls, she’s now being invited to several debates, including a Radio-Canada debate later this week.
“We are very happy with the results of the polls. Contrary to many old politicians, it’s a pleasure for me to be commenting on the polls,” she said.
Joly still has an uphill climb said Leger Marketing pollster Sebastien Dallaire, explaiing that she is attracting younger voters.
“When we look at the numbers for Melanie Joly, a lot of her numbers tend to vote less in an election,” he said.
Leger targeted 1,208 people aged 18 and over in an online poll conducted from Oct. 3 to 5, 2013.
The results of the 2011 National Household Survey were used to balance the sample so it was representative of the population.
Leger considers its margin of error to be 2.8 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
Dallaire said Montrealers had a key issue that was top-of-mind when picking a candidate.
“Corruption is ranked as the most important issue by Montrealers,” he said.