MONTREAL

Daily Hab-it: Advanced Statistics at the Quarter Pole

By Arpon Basu
Published Monday, November 29, 2010 12:08AM EST Last Updated Saturday, May 19, 2012 3:11AM EDT

Text:

This is where this exercise starts to get interesting.

After the Canadiens played their 12th game I did my first look at the team through advanced statistics, something I plan on doing throughout the season.

Now, 12 games later, some interesting patterns have emerged in the ways things have changed, particularly since the loss of Andrei Markov in Game 17. Lines have been shuffled and roles have shifted, but one thing remains constant, and that is Jeff Halpern's spot as Jacques Martin's most trusted defensive forward.

It's significant because that used to be Tomas Plekanec, but Halpern's arrival gives Martin two defensively responsible centres he can turn to, allowing him to spread the wealth among them and giving Plekanec a chance to focus more of his energy on offence. At least in theory.

Still, you'll probably want to know that TSN.ca fantasy guru Scott Cullen picked Plekanec as his Selke Trophy winner for the first quarter of the season.

Another interesting shift is that Roman Hamrlik and Jaroslav Spacek appear to have become Martin's top shut-down defensive pairing, taking the place of Hal Gill and Josh Gorges.

If you need an explanation of each of the statistical categories, you can check out my first post from Nov. 3 by clicking here.

Note that the minimum number of games required to qualify for inclusion here is 10, which is why Dustin Boyd and Markov are not here. In brackets next to each player's score is his previous rank and score from Nov. 3.

Finally, none of this would be possible without Gabriel Desjardins' great website, behindthenet.ca.

Quality of Competition

Jeff Halpern and Maxim Lapierre are basically the only two players who remained consistent in this category as the line juggling and Markov's absence created some major shifting. The big one, to me, is seeing Spacek and Hamrlik in the No. 4 and 6 slots, a big climb up from No. 12 and 10 the last time we looked at this.

While Gorges remains in second, I have a feeling that is somewhat skewed by the games where he played with Markov, but I may be wrong.

Brian Gionta being added to Plekanec's wing has resulted in a major change in both of their numbers here, presumably because opposing teams are sending their best players to face them.

It's also interesting to note that the previous edition had eight players in negative figures, whereas now there's only five, a reflection of the Canadiens facing stronger opponents of late.

1. Lapierre 0.134 (3; 0.115)

2. Gorges 0.116 (7; 0.035)

3. Halpern 0.110 (1; 0.131)

4. Spacek 0.105 (12; -0.001)

5. Gionta 0.103 (17; -0.034)

6. Hamrlik 0.098 (10; 0.005)

7. Plekanec 0.093 (16; -0.030)

8. Pouliot 0.075 (2; 0.118)

9. Gill 0.066 (5; 0.044)

10. Kostitsyn 0.054 (18; -0.037)

11. Cammalleri 0.045 (14; -0.012)

12. Gomez 0.042 (15; -0.027)

13. Darche 0.027 (8; 0.022)

14. Pyatt -0.008 (6; 0.039)

15. Picard -0.030 (11; 0.003)

16. Moen -0.035 (19; -0.049)

17. Eller -0.040 (4; 0.063)

18. Subban -0.054 (13; -0.003)

Zone starts

What jumps out here is Scott Gomez, who went from 43.8 per cent to 52 per cent in a span of 12 games. This is a byproduct of the Halpern-Plekanec one-two defensive punch, and also a way for Martin to try to help get Gomez going.

Seeing P.K. Subban and Alexandre Picard's percentage drop significantly is a surprise, but if you look at everyone's number it gives the impression the Canadiens are getting fewer offensive zone starts as a team.

Finally, Gorges and Gill's percentages increasing by so much appears to support the idea that the top shut-down pair has become Hamrlik and Spacek, who both saw their percentages drop.

1. Darche 60.8 (1; 72.4)

2. Eller 56.9 (2; 62.1)

3. Gomez 52.0 (15; 43.8)

3. Moen 52.0 (13; 46.9)

5. Cammalleri 51.0 (9; 52.3)

6. Subban 50.8 (4; 57.5)

7 Pouliot 50.7 (12; 47.0)

8. Spacek 49.5 (8; 53.1)

9. Kostitsyn 48.9 (10; 49.4)

10. Pyatt 48.8 (6; 53.7)

11. Hamrlik 48.7 (7; 53.5)

12. Gorges 46.4 (17; 39.1)

13. Picard 45.8 (5; 54.2)

14. Lapierre 45.7 (14; 44.4)

15. Gill 45.5 (18; 38.7)

16. Plekanec 45.2 (11; 47.1)

17. Gionta 41.8 (16; 41.6)

18. Halpern 37.1 (19; 34.8)

Relative Corsi Rating

Again, Gomez is the guy who sticks out here because he's been excellent in this category his whole career. For his overall rating for the entire season to have dropped so drastically suggests he hasn't been very dangerous in the offensive zone over the past 12 games. But if you'd watched those 12 games, you'd already know that.

It's also noteworthy that despite a rise in the quality of players they're facing, Hamrlik's number went up significantly and Spacek remained pretty stable.

1. Picard 24.4 (1; 25.4)

2. Subban 21.0 (2; 22.2)

3. Eller 15.3 (6; 8.9)

4. Gionta 15.0 (4; 14.3)

5. Kostitsyn 9.4 (5; 11.2)

6. Plekanec 4.3 (8; -1.5)

7. Gomez 3.6 (3; 18.5)

8. Pouliot 2.6 (12; -5.1)

9. Darche 1.8 (17; -15.9)

10. Pyatt -1.8 (11; -4.6)

11. Spacek -2.3 (9; -2.8)

12. Cammalleri -3.3 (7; 0.1)

13. Halpern -8.1 (10; -4.5)

14. Hamrlik -9.1 (18; -18.1)

15. Moen -10.6 (13; -5.2)

16. Gill -11.4 (15; -10.1)

17. Lapierre -14.3 (14; -9.8)

18. Gorges -14.5 (16; -13.4)

Penalties Drawn/Taken +/-

Lapierre was dominating this category the last time around, but since then he's drawn only two penalties and taken eight for a -6 rating over the past 12 games. Not good.

Subban has drawn four penalties and taken only two over the past 12 games, and with the way teams appear to be targeting him, I'd imagine that trend will continue.

Just like the last time, data for three players was missing, this time it was Mathieu Darche, Tom Pyatt and Lars Eller.

1. Gionta 6/2 = +4 (2; +3)

2. Moen 5/2 = +3 (5; even)

2. Gomez 3/0 = +3 (3; +2)

4. Subban 8/6 = +2 (5; even)

5. Cammalleri 5/4 = +1 (5; even)

6. Halpern 3/3 = even (3; +2)

6. Plekanec 4/4 = even (5; even)

6. Gorges 5/5 = even (13; -2)

6. Picard 1/1 = even (5; even)

10. Kostitsyn 3/4 = -1 (10; -1)

10. Lapierre 10/11 = -1 (1; +5)